MLB Final Intelligence
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds β Recap
September 18, 2026 Β· Great American Ball Park Β· View Preview
Game Recap
The Cincinnati Reds secured an upset victory over the favored Chicago Cubs, breaking a tie in the sixth inning with a decisive three-run rally that proved to be the difference. The Reds started strong, taking a 2-0 lead in the first inning on a sacrifice fly by Stewart and an infield single from Stephenson. Chicago answered back with a run in the second from Kelly's single, then a solo home run by Ian Happ in the third tied the game. Cincinnati quickly regained the lead in the bottom of the third on another sacrifice play by Stewart. The Cubs then claimed their only lead of the game in the fourth, when Suzuki singled home two runs. Despite trailing, Cincinnati mounted its decisive comeback in the bottom of the sixth. SuΓ‘rez hit a crucial single to left field, scoring De La Cruz and tying the game at 4-4. The rally continued when Trevino delivered a two-run single to right, bringing home Bleday and SuΓ‘rez, giving the Reds a two-run lead they would not relinquish. Chase Burns contributed significantly in relief for Cincinnati, pitching three innings with four strikeouts while allowing two earned runs, helping stabilize the game after the early back-and-forth. This late surge countered pregame market expectations, which favored Chicago and aligned with SportsFBI's model that also picked the Cubs. The Reds' ability to capitalize with runners on base and deliver a critical three-run frame in the sixth ultimately allowed them to overcome the favored Cubs and secure the victory. Cincinnati improved to 72-82, while Chicago fell to 85-69.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the Chicago Cubs (-130, 54% implied) over the Cincinnati Reds. Final: the Cincinnati Reds won 6β4, pulling off the upset.
SportsFBI's model favored the Chicago Cubs (57% confidence). Final: the Cincinnati Reds won 6β4, missing the call.
Player of the Game
Turning Point
The game turned in the 6th inning, when the Cincinnati Reds scored 3 runs.
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Holmes L |
|
5.1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3.25 |
| Chase Burns |
|
3.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2.86 |
| Julian Aguiar W |
|
3.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6.00 |
| Javier Assad |
|
1.2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.63 |
| Jacob Webb |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3.48 |
| Brock Burke |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2.36 |
| Emilio Pagan S |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3.54 |
| Tejay Antone |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.29 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Conforto |
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carson Kelly |
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Elly De La Cruz |
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Ian Happ |
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Seiya Suzuki |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jose Trevino |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eugenio Suarez |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sal Stewart |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Stephenson |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Dansby Swanson |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Nico Hoerner |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlos Jorge |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| JJ Bleday |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
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