MLB Final Intelligence
San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers β Recap
October 3, 2026 Β· American Family Field Β· View Preview
Game Recap
The Milwaukee Brewers secured a narrow victory over the San Diego Padres, overcoming an early two-run deficit with a pair of critical home runs to clinch the win. The decisive blow came in the later innings, breaking a tie that had held since the third frame.
San Diego broke the scoreless tie in the second inning when Campusano singled to right field, allowing Bogaerts to score the game's first run. Cronenworth followed with a fielder's choice that brought Salas home, extending the Padres' lead to two runs. However, Milwaukee quickly responded in the bottom of the third, as Jackson Chourio launched a 420-foot home run to left-center, also scoring Mitchell and immediately tying the game. The score remained deadlocked for several innings, setting up a tense finish.
The Brewers' power bats ultimately tilted the scales. After Chourio's two-run blast erased the Padres' early advantage, William Contreras delivered the go-ahead run with a 406-foot solo shot to center field in the seventh inning. This late surge of offense from Milwaukee's lineup, specifically through the long ball, provided just enough to overcome the two runs allowed by starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski, who struck out six Padres over four innings. San Diego could not muster further offense after their second-inning outburst.
Milwaukee's ability to capitalize on timely home runs proved the difference in a closely contested battle, turning a multi-run deficit into a one-run victory. The Brewers improved their season record to 104-59, while the Padres fell to 91-72.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the Milwaukee Brewers (-205, 64% implied) over the San Diego Padres. Final: the Milwaukee Brewers won 3β2.
SportsFBI's model favored the Milwaukee Brewers (72% confidence). Final: the Milwaukee Brewers won 3β2.
Player of the Game
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski |
|
4.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4.50 |
| Robbie Ray |
|
2.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6.75 |
| Adrian Morejon L |
|
2.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2.25 |
| Aaron Ashby |
|
1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 |
| Trevor Megill S |
|
1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez |
|
1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.00 |
| DL Hall W |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jason Adam |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Yuki Matsui |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Senzatela |
|
0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Abner Uribe |
|
0.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers |
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dustin Harris |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Manny Machado |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jackson Chourio |
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| William Contreras |
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Luis Campusano |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Andrew Vaughn |
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Yelich |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Mitchell |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ethan Salas |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ty France |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Xander Bogaerts |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
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