MLB Final Intelligence
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds β Recap
August 17, 2026 Β· Great American Ball Park Β· View Preview
Game Recap
The Cincinnati Reds orchestrated a tenacious comeback victory over the St. Louis Cardinals, battling back from multiple deficits to secure a win in extra innings. Despite St. Louis entering the contest as a market favorite, Cincinnati repeatedly saw its leads vanish as the Reds refused to concede, eventually forcing a dramatic walk-off finish.
Cincinnati initially drew first blood in the bottom of the first inning on a sacrifice fly from SuΓ‘rez. However, the Cardinals responded in the fourth, with Ivan Herrera launching a solo home run to center field, followed by a Winn single that scored Burleson, giving St. Louis a 2-1 advantage. The visitors then extended their lead in the sixth with an RBI single from Church and another from Jordan, pushing the score to 4-1. Yet, the Reds quickly answered in the bottom of the frame, as Toglia's double brought home Bleday, and RodrΓguez then singled, scoring SuΓ‘rez and Toglia to improbably knot the game at four apiece.
The Reds' three-run surge in the sixth inning proved pivotal, immediately erasing what had become a three-run Cardinals lead. Even after St. Louis regained the lead in the top of the eighth when Torres singled home Walker, Cincinnati refused to yield. In the bottom of the ninth, Myers connected for a solo home run to left center, dramatically tying the game once more and sending it to extra innings. De La Cruz then provided the final heroics in the tenth, delivering a single that scored Stephenson from second.
Ultimately, the Cincinnati Reds' persistent offensive effort and clutch hitting proved too much for the favored Cardinals, enabling them to prevail in a hard-fought contest. The win moves the Cincinnati Reds to 60-64 on the season, while the St. Louis Cardinals fall to 63-62.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the St. Louis Cardinals (-119, 53% implied) over the Cincinnati Reds. Final: the Cincinnati Reds won 6β5, pulling off the upset.
SportsFBI's model favored the St. Louis Cardinals (70% confidence). Final: the Cincinnati Reds won 6β5, missing the call.
Player of the Game
Turning Point
The game turned in the 6th inning, when the Cincinnati Reds scored 3 runs.
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhett Lowder |
|
6.2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 5.17 |
| Andre Pallante |
|
6.0 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3.57 |
| Peter Strzelecki |
|
3.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3.86 |
| Brock Burke |
|
1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2.80 |
| Emilio Pagan W |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3.81 |
| Zach McCambley |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4.15 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suarez |
|
3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| JJ Bleday |
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Walker |
|
5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Elly De La Cruz |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| JJ Wetherholt |
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Dane Myers |
|
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ivan Herrera |
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Hector Rodriguez |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Toglia |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Blaze Jordan |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bryan Torres |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Masyn Winn |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Nathan Church |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt McLain |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sal Stewart |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alec Burleson |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
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