NBA Matchup Intelligence

OKC vs
MIA

Thunder vs Heat

November 22, 2026 · 6:00 PM ET
OKC 0-0  ·  MIA 0-0

📝Matchup Preview

Oklahoma City Thunder visit Miami Heat for a regular-season matchup.

Oklahoma City Thunder's availability report lists Otega Oweh (Out). These designations describe availability, not a confirmed starting five.

Adjusted team strength shifts the assessment toward Oklahoma City Thunder. The team-strength comparison weighs possession efficiency, opponent quality and recent performance, with early-season estimates pulled toward the available prior-season baseline.

SportsFBI gives Oklahoma City Thunder a 72% estimated win probability. This estimate is based on team and situational inputs, rather than a two-sided sportsbook moneyline.

Projected score: OKC 118, MIA 111
Model probability of a margin of 20 or more points: 17%

🏆 SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner 🏆 Oklahoma City Thunder
Confidence 72%
Projected Score OKC 118 · MIA 111
Blowout Probability 17%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's NBA matchup engine — not a guarantee. Blowout means a 20+ point margin.

⚖️ Game Edges

Key factors driving this matchup

OKCA Adjusted team strength +7.2 Very Strong

MIA adjusted net 1.19 vs OKC 8.25 per 100 possessions. Expected possessions: 102.12.

OKCA Defensive matchup +5.0 Moderate

MIA adjusted defense 112.67; OKC 107.82 points allowed per 100 possessions.

OKCA Offensive matchup +2.3 Weak

MIA expected offense vs opposing defense 108.50; OKC 115.56 points per 100 possessions.

MIAH Turnovers +0.02 Weak

TOV% 12.81 / 12.18 vs opponent forced TOV% 15.26 / 13.51.

See the Full Analysis

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