Matchup Preview
Phoenix Suns visit Miami Heat for a regular-season matchup.
Phoenix Suns's availability report lists Mark Williams (Out). These designations describe availability, not a confirmed starting five.
Adjusted team strength shifts the assessment toward Miami Heat. The team-strength comparison weighs possession efficiency, opponent quality and recent performance, with early-season estimates pulled toward the available prior-season baseline.
SportsFBI gives Miami Heat a 53% estimated win probability. That is a modest lean, leaving substantial room for the other result. This estimate is based on team and situational inputs, rather than a two-sided sportsbook moneyline.
🏆 SportsFBI Verdict
Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's NBA matchup engine — not a guarantee. Blowout means a 20+ point margin.
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
MIAH Offensive matchup +1.4 Weak
MIA expected offense vs opposing defense 113.06; PHX 111.94 points per 100 possessions.
MIAH Adjusted team strength +1.1 Weak
MIA adjusted net 1.19 vs PHX 0.07 per 100 possessions. Expected possessions: 101.49.
PHXA Defensive matchup +0.29 Weak
MIA adjusted defense 112.67; PHX 112.39 points allowed per 100 possessions.
PHXA Star availability +0.03 Weak
Bam Adebayo (Day-To-Day): 5.7 expected minutes lost; impact rating -0.65 per 100 possessions; Dru Smith (Day-To-Day): 0.0 expected minutes lost; impact rating -13.85 per 100 possessions; Pelle Larsson (Day-To-Day): 5.2 expected minutes lost; impact rating -1.42 per 100 possessions; Luke Kennard (Day-To-Day): 0.0 expected minutes lost; impact rating 0.96 per 100 possessions; Mark Williams (Out): 5.9 expected minutes lost; impact rating -1.83 per 100 possessions; Oso Ighodaro (Day-To-Day): 1.8 expected minutes lost; impact rating -0.80 per 100 possessions
PHXA Free throws +0.03 Weak
FTA/FGA 0.26 / 0.24 vs opponent FTA/FGA allowed 0.28 / 0.25.
MIAH Turnovers +0.01 Weak
TOV% 12.81 / 13.74 vs opponent forced TOV% 15.12 / 13.51.
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