Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Buffalo Bills face Minnesota Vikings in Week 9 at U.S. Bank Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Buffalo Bills enter with a 5-1 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 32.8 points scored and 28.5 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
Minnesota Vikings enter with a 5-0 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 21.8 points scored and 12.8 allowed. Their current streak is 5 wins.
The scoring matchup puts Buffalo Bills’s 32.8 points per game against a Minnesota Vikings defense allowing 12.8. In the other direction, Minnesota Vikings average 21.8 against Buffalo Bills’s 28.5 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Buffalo Bills have injury designations to monitor: DJ Moore (WR) — Questionable; Ed Oliver (DT) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Minnesota Vikings have injury designations to monitor: Jordan Addison (WR) — Questionable; Christian Darrisaw (OT) — Questionable; T.J. Hockenson (TE) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Minnesota Vikings are Home field / environment; Pass defense.
The strongest model adjustments toward Buffalo Bills are Starting QB efficiency; Run-game matchup.
The current model leans toward MIN at 55.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Buffalo Bills 5-1
- 🏈 Record: Minnesota Vikings 5-0
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
MINH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
MIN home field | MIN 29 days / BUF 22 days
MINH Pass defense +0.91 Strong
MIN 5.0 net Y/A / 53.2% CMP / 62.9 RATE | BUF 6.8 / 64.9% / 102.5
BUFA Starting QB efficiency +0.76 Moderate
Kyler Murray (2026) 68.3% CMP / 6.6 Y/A / 2.0% TD / 2.0% INT / 84.7 RATE · Josh Allen (2026) 66.7% CMP / 8.8 Y/A / 5.3% TD / 2.3% INT / 102.1 RATE
BUFA Run-game matchup +0.62 Moderate
MIN 3.8 rush Y/A / 4.0 allowed | BUF 5.1 / 3.8 | PBP 79% stuff avoided | 86% stuff avoided
BUFA Explosive-play differential +0.50 Moderate
5% / 5% allowed | 9% / 7% allowed
MINH Key injury availability +0.50 Weak
MIN 0 unavailable starters · BUF 1
MINH Recent form +0.45 Moderate
MIN W5 · BUF W2
MINH OL vs DL matchup +0.34 Weak
MIN OL sack 9.7% / DEF sack 9.8% | BUF 6.6% / 4.3%
MINH Record quality +0.33 Moderate
MIN 5-0 · BUF 5-1
MINH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.32 Moderate
50% / 25% allowed | 69% / 69% allowed
MINH Turnover differential +0.25 Moderate
MIN 0.8 GIVE / 2.0 TAKE | BUF 1.5 / 1.0
MINH Third-down efficiency +0.13 Weak
MIN OFF 38.0% / DEF 22.2% | BUF 47.6% / 45.0% | PBP 80%/48%/21% | 67%/74%/27%
BUFA Schedule strength +0.08 Weak
MIN 37% opp wins · BUF 41%
MINH Raw scoring differential +0.07 Weak
MIN 21.8 PPG · BUF 32.8 PPG | MIN 12.8 PA/G · BUF 28.5 PA/G
BUFA Special teams efficiency +0.05 Weak
MIN FG 100.0% / NET PUNT 41.0 | BUF 100.0% / 46.0
BUFA Game-script tendencies +0.05 Weak
52% neutral pass / 58 plays | 53% / 56
BUFA Early-down efficiency +0.04 Weak
33% / 34% allowed | 48% / 48% allowed
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