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Passing TDs
1.5
70 · UNDER
EVIDENCE
Market Support
+11
Cross-Vendor Consensus
+11
Confirmed Role
+14
Fantasy Market Conviction
+2
Opponent Position Matchup
+4
Game Script
+9
Prop Line vs Projection
+8
Hit Rate
+12
Recent Form
+11
Season Average vs. Line
+7
Consistency
+4
Recent Pass Attempt Volume
+9
Passing Yards per Attempt
+7
Offensive Sack Avoidance
+4
Completion Percentage over Expectation
+10
Red-zone Pass Attempts per Game
+4
Opponent Pass Yards per Attempt Allowed
+3
Opponent Explosive Pass Rate Allowed
+6
Score = 70
CONFIDENCE
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
See Every Key Suspect
Full Suspects list with evidence breakdowns and player prop edges for every NFL game — available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.