Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Denver Broncos face Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12 at Acrisure Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Denver Broncos enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 19.0 points scored and 20.8 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
Pittsburgh Steelers enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 22.8 points scored and 21.3 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
The scoring matchup puts Denver Broncos’s 19.0 points per game against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense allowing 21.3. In the other direction, Pittsburgh Steelers average 22.8 against Denver Broncos’s 20.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Denver Broncos have injury designations to monitor: Tyler Badie (RB) — Questionable; Talanoa Hufanga (S) — Doubtful; Pat Surtain II (CB) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Pittsburgh Steelers have injury designations to monitor: Ben Skowronek (WR) — Questionable; Brandin Echols (CB) — Questionable; DeShon Elliott (S) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Pittsburgh Steelers are Home field / environment; Run-game matchup.
The strongest model adjustments toward Denver Broncos are OL vs DL matchup; Schedule strength.
The current model leans toward PIT at 54.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Denver Broncos 4-2
- 🏈 Record: Pittsburgh Steelers 4-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
PITH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
PIT home field | PIT 40 days / DEN 43 days
PITH Run-game matchup +0.73 Strong
PIT 4.6 rush Y/A / 4.0 allowed | DEN 3.4 / 4.7 | PBP 77% stuff avoided | 80% stuff avoided
DENA OL vs DL matchup +0.48 Moderate
PIT OL sack 7.5% / DEF sack 7.4% | DEN 4.1% / 7.7%
PITH Starting QB efficiency +0.29 Weak
Aaron Rodgers (2026) 61.4% CMP / 6.4 Y/A / 5.2% TD / 2.1% INT / 88.0 RATE · Bo Nix (2026) 60.3% CMP / 5.6 Y/A / 3.2% TD / 1.6% INT / 79.4 RATE
DENA Schedule strength +0.24 Moderate
PIT 46% opp wins · DEN 58%
PITH Third-down efficiency +0.24 Moderate
PIT OFF 32.9% / DEF 32.5% | DEN 31.6% / 44.4% | PBP 59%/23%/32% | 59%/25%/21%
DENA Pass defense +0.23 Weak
PIT 5.7 net Y/A / 61.7% CMP / 78.6 RATE | DEN 5.3 / 56.5% / 73.1
PITH Early-down efficiency +0.19 Weak
42% / 45% allowed | 36% / 42% allowed
PITH Game-script tendencies +0.16 Weak
64% neutral pass / 60 plays | 57% / 55
PITH Raw scoring differential +0.09 Weak
PIT 22.8 PPG · DEN 19.0 PPG | PIT 21.3 PA/G · DEN 20.8 PA/G
PITH Explosive-play differential +0.08 Weak
6% / 8% allowed | 3% / 6% allowed
DENA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.07 Weak
53% / 50% allowed | 61% / 53% allowed
DENA Special teams efficiency +0.06 Weak
PIT FG 76.5% / NET PUNT 46.3 | DEN 75.0% / 45.9
DENA Turnover differential +0.03 Weak
PIT 1.2 GIVE / 1.7 TAKE | DEN 1.0 / 1.7
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