Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Minnesota Vikings face New England Patriots in Week 14 at Gillette Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Minnesota Vikings enter with a 5-0 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 21.8 points scored and 12.8 allowed. Their current streak is 5 wins.
New England Patriots enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 22.7 points scored and 18.8 allowed. Their current streak is 3 wins.
The scoring matchup puts Minnesota Vikings’s 21.8 points per game against a New England Patriots defense allowing 18.8. In the other direction, New England Patriots average 22.7 against Minnesota Vikings’s 12.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Minnesota Vikings have injury designations to monitor: Jordan Addison (WR) — Questionable; Christian Darrisaw (OT) — Questionable; T.J. Hockenson (TE) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
New England Patriots have injury designations to monitor: A.J. Brown (WR) — Questionable; Morgan Moses (OT) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward New England Patriots are Home field / environment; Schedule strength.
The strongest model adjustments toward Minnesota Vikings are Key injury availability; Pass defense.
The current model leans toward MIN at 55.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Minnesota Vikings 5-0
- 🏈 Record: New England Patriots 4-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
MINA Key injury availability +2.0 Strong
NE 4 unavailable starters · MIN 0
NEH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
NE home field | NE 53 days / MIN 60 days
MINA Pass defense +0.68 Moderate
NE 6.1 net Y/A / 66.1% CMP / 90.3 RATE | MIN 5.0 / 53.2% / 62.9
MINA Record quality +0.67 Strong
NE 4-2 · MIN 5-0
NEH Schedule strength +0.43 Very Strong
NE 58% opp wins · MIN 37%
NEH Starting QB efficiency +0.38 Weak
Drake Maye (2026) 63.9% CMP / 8.0 Y/A / 6.0% TD / 3.8% INT / 92.8 RATE · Kyler Murray (2026) 68.3% CMP / 6.6 Y/A / 2.0% TD / 2.0% INT / 84.7 RATE
NEH Explosive-play differential +0.37 Weak
6% / 5% allowed | 5% / 5% allowed
MINA Recent form +0.30 Moderate
NE W3 · MIN W5
MINA Turnover differential +0.28 Strong
NE 2.2 GIVE / 1.2 TAKE | MIN 0.8 / 2.0
NEH Game-script tendencies +0.27 Weak
51% neutral pass / 61 plays | 52% / 58
MINA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.20 Weak
56% / 50% allowed | 50% / 25% allowed
NEH Run-game matchup +0.17 Weak
NE 4.2 rush Y/A / 3.9 allowed | MIN 3.8 / 4.0 | PBP 78% stuff avoided | 79% stuff avoided
MINA Third-down efficiency +0.16 Weak
NE OFF 40.5% / DEF 37.1% | MIN 38.0% / 22.2% | PBP 62%/38%/31% | 80%/48%/21%
MINA Early-down efficiency +0.16 Weak
43% / 45% allowed | 33% / 34% allowed
MINA Special teams efficiency +0.13 Weak
NE FG 80.0% / NET PUNT 44.1 | MIN 100.0% / 41.0
MINA OL vs DL matchup +0.04 Weak
NE OL sack 5.5% / DEF sack 6.8% | MIN 9.7% / 9.8%
MINA Raw scoring differential +0.01 Weak
NE 22.7 PPG · MIN 21.8 PPG | NE 18.8 PA/G · MIN 12.8 PA/G
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