Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
New England Patriots face Chicago Bears in Week 7 at Soldier Field. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
New England Patriots enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 22.7 points scored and 18.8 allowed. Their current streak is 3 wins.
Chicago Bears enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.0 points scored and 19.8 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts New England Patriots’s 22.7 points per game against a Chicago Bears defense allowing 19.8. In the other direction, Chicago Bears average 25.0 against New England Patriots’s 18.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
The opening market has Chicago Bears favored by 1.5 points and a total of 47.5 points. These are market expectations, separate from the model’s projected lean.
New England Patriots have injury designations to monitor: Ben Brown (C) — Doubtful; A.J. Brown (WR) — Questionable; Carlton Davis III (CB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Chicago Bears have injury designations to monitor: T.J. Edwards (LB) — Questionable; Jonah Jackson (G) — Questionable; Tony Fields II (LB) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Chicago Bears are Home field / environment; Key injury availability.
The strongest model adjustments toward New England Patriots are Explosive-play differential; Recent form.
The current model leans toward CHI at 63.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: New England Patriots 4-2
- 🏈 Record: Chicago Bears 4-2
- 📈 Market (opening): Chicago Bears favored by 1.5 points; a total of 47.5 points
- 🌤️ Weather: 55.8°F, 5.4 mph wind
- 🔮 Projected score: NE 23, CHI 27
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
CHIH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
CHI home field | CHI 4 days / NE 4 days
NEA Explosive-play differential +0.81 Strong
6% / 8% allowed | 6% / 5% allowed
CHIH Key injury availability +0.50 Weak
CHI 0 unavailable starters · NE 1
NEA Recent form +0.30 Moderate
CHI W1 · NE W3
CHIH Game-script tendencies +0.29 Weak
52% neutral pass / 69 plays | 51% / 61
NEA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.29 Moderate
50% / 67% allowed | 56% / 50% allowed
CHIH OL vs DL matchup +0.19 Weak
CHI OL sack 6.7% / DEF sack 9.4% | NE 5.5% / 6.8%
CHIH Third-down efficiency +0.19 Weak
CHI OFF 45.5% / DEF 25.8% | NE 40.5% / 37.1% | PBP 53%/60%/25% | 62%/38%/31%
CHIH Run-game matchup +0.18 Weak
CHI 4.5 rush Y/A / 4.5 allowed | NE 4.2 / 3.9 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 78% stuff avoided
CHIH Starting QB efficiency +0.18 Weak
Caleb Williams (2026) 72.5% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 3.3% TD / 1.1% INT / 101.5 RATE · Drake Maye (2026) 63.9% CMP / 8.0 Y/A / 6.0% TD / 3.8% INT / 92.8 RATE
CHIH Turnover differential +0.11 Weak
CHI 1.8 GIVE / 1.5 TAKE | NE 2.2 / 1.2
NEA Early-down efficiency +0.10 Weak
43% / 45% allowed | 43% / 45% allowed
NEA Schedule strength +0.08 Weak
CHI 54% opp wins · NE 58%
CHIH Raw scoring differential +0.07 Weak
CHI 25.0 PPG · NE 22.7 PPG | CHI 19.8 PA/G · NE 18.8 PA/G
NEA Pass defense +0.03 Weak
CHI 7.1 net Y/A / 62.6% CMP / 99.9 RATE | NE 6.1 / 66.1% / 90.3
NEA Special teams efficiency +0.01 Weak
CHI FG 72.7% / NET PUNT 45.6 | NE 80.0% / 44.1
Betting Lines DraftKings
🔍 Key Suspects
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
See the Full Analysis
All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges — available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.