Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Pittsburgh Steelers face Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 14 at EverBank Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Pittsburgh Steelers enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 22.8 points scored and 21.3 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
Jacksonville Jaguars enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.7 points scored and 17.3 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Pittsburgh Steelers’s 22.8 points per game against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense allowing 17.3. In the other direction, Jacksonville Jaguars average 25.7 against Pittsburgh Steelers’s 21.3 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Pittsburgh Steelers have injury designations to monitor: Ben Skowronek (WR) — Questionable; Brandin Echols (CB) — Questionable; DeShon Elliott (S) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Jacksonville Jaguars have injury designations to monitor: Montaric Brown (CB) — Questionable; Antonio Johnson (S) — Questionable; Ross Matiscik (LS) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Jacksonville Jaguars are Starting QB efficiency; Home field / environment.
The strongest model adjustments toward Pittsburgh Steelers are Pass defense; Recent form.
The current model leans toward JAX at 58.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Pittsburgh Steelers 4-2
- 🏈 Record: Jacksonville Jaguars 4-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
JAXH Starting QB efficiency +1.2 Moderate
Trevor Lawrence (2026) 65.2% CMP / 8.0 Y/A / 7.6% TD / 2.2% INT / 106.2 RATE · Aaron Rodgers (2026) 61.4% CMP / 6.4 Y/A / 5.2% TD / 2.1% INT / 88.0 RATE
JAXH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
JAX home field | JAX 57 days / PIT 57 days
JAXH Early-down efficiency +0.68 Moderate
47% / 44% allowed | 42% / 45% allowed
PITA Pass defense +0.63 Moderate
JAX 7.4 net Y/A / 66.0% CMP / 87.7 RATE | PIT 5.7 / 61.7% / 78.6
JAXH Explosive-play differential +0.48 Moderate
7% / 7% allowed | 6% / 8% allowed
PITA Recent form +0.45 Moderate
JAX L1 · PIT W2
JAXH Third-down efficiency +0.38 Moderate
JAX OFF 47.9% / DEF 36.2% | PIT 32.9% / 32.5% | PBP 80%/56%/30% | 59%/23%/32%
JAXH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.29 Moderate
67% / 40% allowed | 53% / 50% allowed
PITA Game-script tendencies +0.26 Weak
55% neutral pass / 58 plays | 64% / 60
JAXH Run-game matchup +0.22 Weak
JAX 4.1 rush Y/A / 3.2 allowed | PIT 4.6 / 4.0 | PBP 80% stuff avoided | 77% stuff avoided
JAXH Raw scoring differential +0.22 Weak
JAX 25.7 PPG · PIT 22.8 PPG | JAX 17.3 PA/G · PIT 21.3 PA/G
JAXH Schedule strength +0.17 Moderate
JAX 54% opp wins · PIT 46%
JAXH OL vs DL matchup +0.07 Weak
JAX OL sack 5.2% / DEF sack 4.9% | PIT 7.5% / 7.4%
JAXH Special teams efficiency +0.06 Weak
JAX FG 83.3% / NET PUNT 43.3 | PIT 76.5% / 46.3
JAXH Turnover differential +0.04 Weak
JAX 0.7 GIVE / 1.5 TAKE | PIT 1.2 / 1.7
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