NHL Final Intelligence
Florida Panthers 3, Washington Capitals 4 — Recap
· Capital One Arena · Recap published · View Preview
Game Recap
The Washington Capitals secured a 4-3 victory over the Florida Panthers, as SportsFBI's pregame lean toward Washington at 52% proved correct. Washington improved its record to 8-6-0, while Florida dropped to 9-5-2 despite holding a 30-31 edge in shots on goal. Logan Thompson stopped 27 of 30 shots for the Capitals, matching the 27 saves on 31 shots made by Akira Schmid for the Panthers.
The opening period saw a flurry of offense as Jack St. Ivany opened the scoring at 02:21 to put Washington ahead 1-0. Florida responded quickly when Brady Tkachuk scored at 03:13, assisted by Matthew Tkachuk, and then added another goal at 10:00 with assists from Matthew Tkachuk and Seth Jones, giving the Panthers a 2-1 lead after one period.
Washington took control in the second period. Alex Tuch tied the game 2-2 at 04:39, and Aliaksei Protas followed at 14:55 with assists from Pierre-Luc Dubois and Ryan Leonard, sending the Capitals into the intermission with a 3-2 advantage. Pierre-Luc Dubois extended the lead to 4-2 at 04:42 of the third period, assisted by Protas.
Florida mounted a late push when Sam Bennett scored at 19:13, assisted by Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart, cutting the deficit to 4-3. Matthew Tkachuk finished the contest with three assists and Brady Tkachuk scored twice for Florida, while Dubois and Protas each recorded a goal and an assist for Washington.
How the Prediction Fared
Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Washington Capitals (-130, 57% implied) over the Florida Panthers.
SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Washington Capitals (52% confidence). It gave a 32% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 1 goal.
💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line
Standouts
Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.
📊 Game Flow
- P1 2:21 Jack St. Ivany WSH · snap shot · FLA 0, WSH 1
- P1 3:13 Brady Tkachuk (Matthew Tkachuk) FLA · snap shot · FLA 1, WSH 1
- P1 10:00 Brady Tkachuk (Matthew Tkachuk, Seth Jones) FLA · Power play · snap shot · FLA 2, WSH 1
- P2 4:39 Alex Tuch WSH · snap shot · FLA 2, WSH 2
- P2 14:55 Aliaksei Protas (Pierre-Luc Dubois, Ryan Leonard) WSH · snap shot · FLA 2, WSH 3
- P3 4:42 Pierre-Luc Dubois (Aliaksei Protas) WSH · wrist shot · FLA 2, WSH 4
- P3 19:13 Sam Bennett (Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart) FLA · Power play · snap shot · FLA 3, WSH 4
📋 Team Stats
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 11 | 10 | 9 | 30 |
| WSH | 9 | 7 | 15 | 31 |
🎯 Shot Map
- 3Goals7% of attempts
- 27Saved66% of attempts
- 11Missed the net27% of attempts
- 4Goals9% of attempts
- 27Saved57% of attempts
- 16Missed the net34% of attempts
● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.
🏒 Box Score
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Tkachuk | L | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 23:09 |
| Brady Tkachuk | L | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21:23 |
| Sam Bennett | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 17:57 |
| Seth Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 25:45 |
| Sam Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:59 |
| Aaron Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 22:16 |
| Carter Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 20:36 |
| Gustav Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19:13 |
| Niko Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 |
| Eetu Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16:38 |
| Lars Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:11 |
| Uvis Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:22 |
| Cole Reinhardt | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12:59 |
| Dmitry Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:02 |
| Garnet Hathaway | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 10:08 |
| Cole Schwindt | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 08:24 |
| Bokondji Imama | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 05:13 |
| Sandis Vilmanis | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 02:07 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid | — | 27 | 31 | 87.1 | 4 | 58:19 |
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliaksei Protas | L | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14:58 |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 |
| Alex Tuch | R | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 23:15 |
| Jack St. Ivany | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13:50 |
| Ryan Leonard | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14:32 |
| Matt Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 23:52 |
| Jakob Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21:57 |
| Martin Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 21:49 |
| Dylan Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18:00 |
| Jordan Kyrou | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 |
| Cole Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 16:18 |
| Justin Sourdif | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16:10 |
| Timothy Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:57 |
| Boone Jenner | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 |
| Alex Ovechkin | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 |
| Anthony Beauvillier | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:50 |
| Ilya Protas | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 06:24 |
| Tom Wilson | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 02:13 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | — | 27 | 30 | 90.0 | 3 | 59:14 |
🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines
| Player | Prop | Line | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Tkachuk FLA | Points | 0.5 | 3 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 3 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 3 | Over | |
| Aliaksei Protas WSH | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Brady Tkachuk FLA | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 3.5 | 7 | Over | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois WSH | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 3 | Over | |
| Sam Bennett FLA | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 4 | Over | |
| Ryan Leonard WSH | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 3 | Over |
The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.
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