NHL Final Intelligence
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Calgary Flames β Recap
October 26, 2026 Β· Scotiabank Saddledome Β· View Preview
Game Recap
The Calgary Flames built an early lead and withstood a late Toronto surge to defeat the Maple Leafs 5-2. Matvei Gridin opened the scoring for Calgary at 10:05 of the first period, assisted by Martin Pospisil and Simon Nemec. Mikael Backlund extended the Flames' advantage less than two minutes later, netting a goal with help from Matt Coronato and Joel Farabee to put Calgary up 2-0.
Gridin struck again just 25 seconds into the second period, with assists from Zayne Parekh and Devin Cooley, pushing Calgary's lead to 3-0. Toronto responded midway through the period when Easton Cowan scored at 12:54, assisted by Troy Stecher and Morgan Rielly, narrowing the deficit to 3-1.
William Nylander brought the Maple Leafs within one goal at 6:06 of the third period, with assists from Jack Roslovic and Auston Matthews, making the score 3-2. Calgary, however, responded late in the period. Joel Farabee extended the lead at 18:35, assisted by Matt Coronato and Yan Kuznetsov, pushing the score to 4-2. Martin Pospisil then added an unassisted goal at 19:18 to solidify the 5-2 final.
Calgary outshot Toronto 34-28. Sergei Bobrovsky made 30 saves on 33 shots for Toronto, while Devin Cooley stopped 25 of 27 for Calgary. Matvei Gridin led the Flames with two goals, while Joel Farabee contributed a goal and an assist, and Matt Coronato added two assists. The SportsFBI model had favored Toronto at 68% pregame, a prediction that did not materialize. Following the contest, Calgary's record stands at 4-6-0, and Toronto's falls to 7-4-2.
How the Prediction Fared
Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Toronto Maple Leafs (-135, 57% implied) over the Calgary Flames. The underdog won.
SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Toronto Maple Leafs (68% confidence). It gave a 37% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 3 goals.
Standouts
Full box score, every player's line and the scoring plays are available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.
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