โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

NYM vs
PHI

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies

July 16, 2026 ยท 6:00 PM ET ยท Citizens Bank Park
NYM 74-88  ยท  PHI 88-74

๐Ÿ Final: NYM 4, PHI 1 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† New York Mets
Confidence 63%
Projected Score NYM 4 ยท PHI 2
Blowout Probability 8%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

PHI Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM Key injuries PHI (Luis Arraez) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PHI Key injuries NYM (Christian Scott) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM SP quality edge (FIP 4.43 vs 4.93) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM Defensive edge (dWAR 4.9) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM K edge vs PHI lineup (11.0 K/9) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM Recent run diff (+0.4 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM PHI SP road-favored (pitching at home) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

NYM โ€” Away RHP
Christian Scott
Christian Scott
ERA3.85
WHIP1.27
FIP3.36
K/911.0
K/BB7.1
Road ERA: 4.08
vs
PHI โ€” Home RHP
Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola
ERA4.67
WHIP1.35
FIP4.84
K/99.1
K/BB6.1
Home ERA: 5.72

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

NYM โ€” Away
  1. 1 A.J. Ewing CF
  2. 2 Juan Soto LF
  3. 3 Bo Bichette 3B
  4. 4 Francisco Lindor SS
  5. 5 Carson Benge RF
  6. 6 Jorge Polanco DH
  7. 7 Jared Young 1B
  8. 8 Brett Baty 2B
  9. 9 Francisco Alvarez C
PHI โ€” Home
  1. 1 Trea Turner SS
  2. 2 Kyle Schwarber DH
  3. 3 Bryce Harper 1B
  4. 4 Brandon Marsh LF
  5. 5 Alec Bohm 3B
  6. 6 Bryson Stott 2B
  7. 7 J.T. Realmuto C
  8. 8 Gabriel Rincones Jr. RF
  9. 9 Justin Crawford CF

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

NYM Away PHI Home
Team OPS 0.711 0.701
Bullpen FIP 4.39 4.07
Run Diff / 10G -1.6 -2.0
Days Rest 3 3
Streak -1 1

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
NYM -2.5 (-301)
PHI +2.5 (+219)
Total (O/U)
Over 5.5 (+140)
Under 5.5 (-184)
Moneyline
NYM -10000
PHI +1340

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 4 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

NYM โ€” Away
Bo Bichette Bo Bichette 3B
Hits
0.5
79 ยท OVER
A.J. Ewing A.J. Ewing CF
Hits
0.5
79 ยท OVER
Francisco Lindor Francisco Lindor SS
Hits
0.5
75 ยท OVER
Francisco Alvarez Francisco Alvarez C
Hits
0.5
71 ยท OVER
PHI โ€” Home
Trea Turner Trea Turner SS
Hits
0.5
70 ยท OVER
Bryce Harper Bryce Harper 1B
Hits
0.5
62 ยท OVER
Bryson Stott Bryson Stott 2B
Hits
0.5
60 ยท OVER
Alec Bohm Alec Bohm 3B
Hits
0.5
56 ยท OVER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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