โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

NYY vs
BOS

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox

June 28, 2026 ยท 7:20 PM ET ยท Fenway Park
NYY 93-68  ยท  BOS 87-75

๐Ÿ Final: NYY 4, BOS 5 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Boston Red Sox
Confidence 72%
Projected Score BOS 6 ยท NYY 4
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

BOS Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYY Key injuries BOS (Mickey Gasper, Roman Anthony) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYY SP quality edge (FIP 3.49 vs 3.67, PF 1.07) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS NYY SP elevated fatigue โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Defensive edge (dWAR 5.8) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Recent run diff (+3.6 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS NYY SP home dependent โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Line move (25pp sharp) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

NYY โ€” Away LHP
Carlos Rodon
Carlos Rodon
ERA2.67
WHIP1.05
FIP3.37
K/99.7
K/BB5.7
Road ERA: 3.24
vs
BOS โ€” Home RHP
Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray
ERA2.72
WHIP1.15
FIP3.38
K/97.9
K/BB5.5
Home ERA: 2.72

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

NYY โ€” Away
  1. 1 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
  2. 2 Ben Rice 1B
  3. 3 Jasson Dominguez RF
  4. 4 Cody Bellinger LF
  5. 5 Spencer Jones CF
  6. 6 Amed Rosario DH
  7. 7 Oswaldo Cabrera 3B
  8. 8 Austin Wells C
  9. 9 Jose Caballero SS
BOS โ€” Home
  1. 1 Nate Eaton LF
  2. 2 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
  3. 3 Wilyer Abreu RF
  4. 4 Willson Contreras 1B
  5. 5 Romy Gonzalez DH
  6. 6 Caleb Durbin 3B
  7. 7 Anthony Seigler 2B
  8. 8 Connor Wong C
  9. 9 Tsung-Che Cheng SS

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

NYY Away BOS Home
Team OPS 0.714 0.707
Bullpen FIP 4.52 3.55
Run Diff / 10G -2.0 +1.6
Days Rest 0 0
Streak 2 -3

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
NYY -1.5 (+650)
BOS +1.5 (-1340)
Total (O/U)
Over 9.5 (+258)
Under 9.5 (-372)
Moneyline
NYY +326
BOS -485

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 2 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

NYY โ€” Away
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
Singles
0.5
59 ยท OVER
BOS โ€” Home
Sonny Gray Sonny Gray SP
Outs
17.5
61 ยท OVER
Ceddanne Rafaela Ceddanne Rafaela CF
Singles
0.5
51 ยท OVER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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