MLB Final Intelligence
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres โ Recap
September 25, 2026 ยท Petco Park ยท View Preview
Game Recap
The Arizona Diamondbacks delivered an offensive onslaught, overpowering the favored San Diego Padres in an 11-4 victory. The Diamondbacks established an early lead and consistently added insurance runs, ultimately securing the upset win over a team with a stronger record. This performance validated SportsFBI's pregame analytics, which had surprisingly favored Arizona despite the market leaning toward the Padres.
The scoring began immediately in the first inning, with Nootbaar launching a solo home run to right center. Geraldo Perdomo then tripled to right, driving in another run, and scored himself on a sacrifice fly by Carroll, giving Arizona a quick 3-0 advantage. Answering in the second, Lawlar extended Arizona's lead with a solo shot to right. San Diego responded with two runs in the bottom of the second, first on a groundout by Campusano and then a single by Cronenworth, narrowing the deficit to 4-2.
Arizona's offense refused to slow down, regaining momentum in the third with an Arenado two-run homer to left and adding another run in the fourth on Moreno's single. The decisive blow came in the sixth inning when Perdomo delivered a three-run double to center field, significantly expanding the lead to 10-2. This extended the Diamondbacks' cushion well beyond the Padres' reach, despite San Diego adding late runs in the seventh and eighth innings. Perdomo's standout night included four RBIs and two runs scored, playing a pivotal role in the Diamondbacks' offensive surge. Brandon Pfaadt, despite allowing four earned runs over 7.2 innings, was effectively backed by the overwhelming run support.
Ultimately, the Diamondbacks' consistent and explosive hitting, particularly in the early innings and a crucial sixth-inning rally, dictated the game's outcome against a favored Padres squad. The Arizona Diamondbacks now hold an 86-74 record, while the San Diego Padres fall to 89-71.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the San Diego Padres (-142, 56% implied) over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Final: the Arizona Diamondbacks won 11โ4, pulling off the upset.
SportsFBI's model favored the Arizona Diamondbacks (59% confidence). Final: the Arizona Diamondbacks won 11โ4.
Player of the Game
Turning Point
The game turned in the 1st inning, when the Arizona Diamondbacks scored 3 runs.
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt W |
|
7.2 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 3.77 |
| Casey Mize L |
|
4.0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4.32 |
| Wandy Peralta |
|
2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.61 |
| Zac Gallen |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.07 |
| David Morgan |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3.90 |
| Jason Adam |
|
1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2.62 |
| Kyle Hart |
|
1.0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4.92 |
| Ryne Nelson |
|
0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.80 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geraldo Perdomo |
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Gabriel Moreno |
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Sung-Mun Song |
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. |
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xander Bogaerts |
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nolan Arenado |
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Lawlar |
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Lars Nootbaar |
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Jake Cronenworth |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Luis Campusano |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Tawa |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dustin Harris |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jackson Merrill |
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
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