MLB Final Intelligence
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres β Recap
September 26, 2026 Β· Petco Park Β· View Preview
Game Recap
The San Diego Padres overcame an early Arizona Diamondbacks lead and then held off a late D-backs rally to secure a victory at home, reinforcing their status as the pregame favorite. The Padresβ sustained offensive pressure, particularly with crucial multi-run innings, ultimately proved too much for the visitors to overcome.
Both clubs traded blows in the initial innings, with San Diego drawing first blood in the bottom of the first on a Merrill single that brought Harris home. Arizona quickly answered in the top of the second, as Perdomo crossed the plate following a pickoff error by Padres catcher Salas. Moreno then gave the Diamondbacks a brief lead in the third before the Padres offense responded immediately, knotting the score on a France ground out and then taking the lead when Sheets doubled. In the fourth, Arizona briefly regained the advantage with a two-run homer from McCann.
San Diego's offense proved resilient and ultimately decisive. Manny Machado launched a crucial three-run home run in the bottom of the fourth, immediately erasing Arizona's short-lived lead and giving the Padres a 6-4 advantage. This blast ignited a stretch where San Diego scored seven unanswered runs over three innings, including a solo shot by Bogaerts in the fifth and a two-RBI single from Cronenworth in the sixth, pushing their lead to six runs. Even as the Diamondbacks rallied with three runs in the ninth, drawing walks and hits from Perdomo, Carroll, and Arenado, the Padres' sustained mid-game scoring made the comeback attempt fall short. Reliever Bradgley Rodriguez contributed to preserving the lead with two scoreless innings, striking out two.
The Padres' consistent offensive pressure and ability to deliver key multi-run innings after trading early blows ultimately dictated the game's outcome. They successfully leveraged their home venue advantage, a factor SportsFBI's model highlighted as critical, to secure the win. The San Diego Padres now stand at 90-71, while the Arizona Diamondbacks fall to 86-75.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the San Diego Padres (-125, 53% implied) over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Final: the San Diego Padres won 10β7.
SportsFBI's model favored the San Diego Padres (53% confidence). Final: the San Diego Padres won 10β7.
Player of the Game
Turning Point
The game turned in the 9th inning, when the Arizona Diamondbacks scored 3 runs.
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler |
|
3.2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4.63 |
| Dennis Santana |
|
2.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5.56 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga |
|
2.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.42 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez |
|
2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2.19 |
| Jose Cabrera L |
|
1.1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5.72 |
| Justin Martinez |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 |
| Adrian Morejon |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2.83 |
| David Morgan |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3.78 |
| Mason Miller |
|
1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1.67 |
| Juan Morillo |
|
0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.11 |
| Taylor Clarke |
|
0.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.96 |
| Kevin Ginkel |
|
0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4.16 |
| Yuki Matsui W |
|
0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.83 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tawa |
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Manny Machado |
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Cronenworth |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jackson Merrill |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Ketel Marte |
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dustin Harris |
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ethan Salas |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James McCann |
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Xander Bogaerts |
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Corbin Carroll |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Gabriel Moreno |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nolan Arenado |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Gavin Sheets |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ty France |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Pavin Smith |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
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