MLB Final Intelligence
Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals โ Recap
July 7, 2026 ยท Nationals Park ยท View Preview
Game Recap
The Houston Astros, entering the contest with a 52-55 record, defied pregame expectations by pulling off a 6-3 upset victory over the 54-52 Washington Nationals, who had been favored to win. The game saw both teams trade blows early, but a pivotal fourth inning allowed the Astros to take control and secure a crucial win on the road.
The Nationals jumped out to an early lead in the bottom of the first inning, with James Wood launching a 419-foot solo home run to right center. Houston quickly responded in the top of the second when Allen hit a sacrifice fly, bringing Walker home to tie the game at 1-1. Washington regained the lead in the third inning on another sacrifice fly, this time from Abrams, which scored Wood and put the Nationals up 2-1. Wood was a bright spot for Washington throughout the game, ending with two hits, including his home run, an RBI, and two runs scored.
However, the turning point arrived swiftly in the top of the fourth inning. The Astros exploded for three runs, starting with Allen's single to left that scored both Dezenzo and Walker, giving Houston a 3-2 lead. Vรกzquez then added another run with a sacrifice fly to center, scoring Matthews and extending the Astros' advantage to 4-2. This offensive outburst proved costly for Nationals pitcher Andrew Alvarez, who finished his outing having allowed five earned runs over 5.2 innings.
The Astros continued to build on their lead in subsequent innings, as Vรกzquez singled to right in the top of the sixth, bringing Dezenzo home to make it 5-2. Jose Altuve provided some late-game insurance, hitting a 402-foot solo homer to left center in the top of the eighth, pushing the score to 6-2. The Nationals managed to add a final run in the bottom of the ninth on a 398-foot solo home run by Tena, but it was not enough to overcome Houston's lead, solidifying the Astros' 6-3 upset win.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the Washington Nationals (-122, 53% implied) over the Houston Astros. Final: the Houston Astros won 6โ3, pulling off the upset.
Player of the Game
Turning Point
The game turned in the 4th inning, when the Houston Astros scored 3 runs.
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Alvarez L |
|
5.2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3.64 |
| Steven Okert W |
|
1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2.42 |
| Bryan Abreu |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5.70 |
| Bryan King |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2.03 |
| Enyel De Los Santos |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.54 |
| Carson Palmquist |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7.11 |
| Josh Hader S |
|
0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.59 |
| Justin Lawrence |
|
0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7.67 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood |
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Curtis Mead |
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Luis Garcia Jr. |
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nasim Nunez |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jose Altuve |
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jose Tena |
|
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Allen |
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Christian Vazquez |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| CJ Abrams |
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Brice Matthews |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Christian Walker |
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Isaac Paredes |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jorbit Vivas |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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