MLB Final Intelligence
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds โ Recap
September 16, 2026 ยท Great American Ball Park ยท View Preview
Game Recap
The Cincinnati Reds pulled off an upset victory over the heavily favored Los Angeles Dodgers, using timely hitting and a resilient offense to build a lead and ultimately win 6-2. Despite Los Angeles being favored by the pregame market and SportsFBI's proprietary model (which had a 72% confidence in the Dodgers due to a significant starting pitcher quality edge), the Reds never trailed after the third inning, quickly erasing an early deficit and steadily adding insurance runs to secure the win.
Los Angeles initially took the lead in the top of the third inning when Smith doubled to right field, scoring Betts. However, Cincinnati responded immediately in the bottom half of the frame. Elly De La Cruz launched a 391-foot home run to right, bringing McLain home and giving the Reds a 2-1 advantage. Myers then extended Cincinnati's lead to 3-1 with a 376-foot solo shot to right center in the fifth. The Dodgers managed to cut the deficit to one run in the sixth when Edman grounded out, allowing Tucker to score. Yet again, the Reds had an answer, as Brito singled home Stewart in the bottom of the sixth to make it 4-2. Cincinnati solidified their lead in the seventh with two more runs; Stewart's infield single scored McLain, and Friedl followed with a single to center that brought De La Cruz home, pushing the score to 6-2.
The turning point came early when the Reds immediately countered the Dodgers' lone lead. After Los Angeles scored in the top of the third, De La Cruz's two-run blast in the bottom of the inning not only erased the deficit but gave Cincinnati a lead they would not relinquish. This established a pattern for the game; every time the Dodgers threatened or scored, the Reds found a way to respond and extend their advantage. Cincinnati's consistent offensive pressure, particularly with two-run frames in both the third and seventh innings, was critical. On the mound, Andrew Abbott contributed significantly to the Reds' effort, allowing just one earned run and striking out five over 4.2 innings, limiting the high-powered Dodgers lineup.
The Cincinnati Reds prevailed through a combination of responsive hitting and a solid pitching performance that kept the Dodgers at bay. Despite entering the game as significant underdogs, they demonstrated a consistent ability to generate offense and maintain control, never letting Los Angeles regain momentum after the third inning. This victory improves the Reds' record to 71-81, while the Dodgers now stand at 92-60.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the Los Angeles Dodgers (-207, 64% implied) over the Cincinnati Reds. Final: the Cincinnati Reds won 6โ2, pulling off the upset.
SportsFBI's model favored the Los Angeles Dodgers (72% confidence). Final: the Cincinnati Reds won 6โ2, missing the call.
Player of the Game
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott |
|
4.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4.70 |
| Bobby Miller |
|
2.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5.06 |
| Brock Burke |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.40 |
| Emilio Pagan |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3.63 |
| Graham Ashcraft |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4.60 |
| Julian Garcia |
|
1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.13 |
| Blake Snell |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.86 |
| Blake Treinen |
|
1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.33 |
| Jack Dreyer |
|
1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3.19 |
| Kris Bubic |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4.03 |
| Seth Halvorsen L |
|
1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.00 |
| Alex Vesia |
|
0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.83 |
| Tejay Antone W |
|
0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.35 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Brito |
|
3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sal Stewart |
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mookie Betts |
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Will Smith |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Elly De La Cruz |
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Dane Myers |
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| TJ Friedl |
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| JJ Bleday |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jose Trevino |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt McLain |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyler Stephenson |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Enrique Hernandez |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Tucker |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
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