MLB Final Intelligence
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins β Recap
September 12, 2026 Β· loanDepot park Β· View Preview
Game Recap
The Miami Marlins rallied from an early two-run deficit to secure a 4-3 upset victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers, who were heavily favored by both the pregame market and SportsFBI's proprietary model. Miamiβs immediate offensive response and ability to hold a narrow lead proved crucial against a Dodgers team expected to win convincingly.
Los Angeles quickly seized an early advantage in the top of the first inning, as Mookie Betts launched a solo home run to left center, followed immediately by another solo shot from Max Muncy to center field, giving the Dodgers a 2-0 lead. However, the Marlins responded with force in the bottom of the second inning. Graham Pauley belted a two-run homer to right center, driving in Caissie to tie the game, and Bryan De La Cruz then singled to right, scoring Heriberto HernΓ‘ndez and putting Miami ahead 3-2. The Marlins extended their lead in the fifth when Otto Sanoja grounded into a fielder's choice, allowing Jake Conine to score on a throwing error by shortstop Betts.
Miamiβs three-run outburst in the second inning proved to be the game's decisive turning point, effectively neutralizing Los Angelesβs strong start and establishing a lead the Marlins would not relinquish. Tyler Glasnow, despite striking out seven over four innings for the Dodgers, surrendered all four earned runs. The Dodgers mounted a threat in the top of the ninth inning when Feduccia singled to left, bringing home De Paula and cutting the deficit to one run, but Miami's bullpen closed out the game.
The Marlins demonstrated significant resilience, overcoming an early deficit against a formidable opponent and successfully fending off a late rally to complete the upset. The Los Angeles Dodgers now hold a 90-58 record, while the Miami Marlins improved to 73-76.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the Los Angeles Dodgers (-197, 63% implied) over the Miami Marlins. Final: the Miami Marlins won 4β3, pulling off the upset.
SportsFBI's model favored the Los Angeles Dodgers (72% confidence). Final: the Miami Marlins won 4β3, missing the call.
Player of the Game
Turning Point
The game turned in the 2nd inning, when the Miami Marlins scored 3 runs.
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow L |
|
4.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 3.50 |
| Tyler Phillips |
|
3.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3.55 |
| Justin Wrobleski |
|
2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3.78 |
| Cade Gibson W |
|
1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.32 |
| Jack Dreyer |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.93 |
| Seth Halvorsen |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5.54 |
| Calvin Faucher |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.61 |
| Michael Petersen |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.19 |
| Pete Fairbanks S |
|
1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.10 |
| Tyler Zuber |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4.79 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Conine |
|
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Otto Lopez |
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Graham Pauley |
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Max Muncy |
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Mookie Betts |
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Hunter Feduccia |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex Freeland |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Heriberto Hernandez |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
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