MLB Final Intelligence
Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs β Recap
September 22, 2026 Β· Wrigley Field Β· View Preview
Game Recap
The Miami Marlins erupted for six runs in the 12th inning to break open a tied game and defeat the Chicago Cubs 8-2, orchestrating an upset against a team heavily favored by both pregame markets and analytical models.
Miami initially took a lead in the fourth inning when RamΓrez singled home Kyle Stowers. Stowers later extended that lead with a solo home run in the sixth. However, Chicago quickly answered in the bottom of the frame, tying the game at two runs apiece with help from a fielding error by catcher Mack and a timely single by Happ. The score remained deadlocked through the ninth and into extra innings, setting the stage for a dramatic finish.
The decisive blow came in the top of the 12th. After Ruiz scored on a Conine single to break the tie, Miami's offense continued its onslaught. Marsee added another run with a single, and Stowers drew a walk that scored Marsee. Sanoja then singled home another run, before Mack delivered a two-run single that extended the lead to six runs. This offensive outburst was made possible by Janson Junk's dominant relief appearance; he tossed five scoreless innings, striking out six and preventing the Cubs from taking the lead after their early comeback.
The Marlins' persistent late-game hitting, combined with Junk's stellar extended relief outing, ultimately proved too much for the Cubs, allowing them to clinch a crucial road victory. The Marlins now stand at 77-80, while the Cubs fall to 87-70.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the Chicago Cubs (-220, 66% implied) over the Miami Marlins. Final: the Miami Marlins won 8β2, pulling off the upset.
SportsFBI's model favored the Chicago Cubs (65% confidence). Final: the Miami Marlins won 8β2, missing the call.
Player of the Game
Turning Point
The game turned in the 12th inning, when the Miami Marlins scored 6 runs.
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shota Imanaga |
|
5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3.74 |
| Janson Junk |
|
5.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4.31 |
| Aaron Civale |
|
2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4.21 |
| Daniel Palencia |
|
1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.77 |
| Ryan Rolison |
|
1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2.90 |
| Caleb Thielbar L |
|
1.0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4.99 |
| Calvin Faucher |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3.39 |
| Eury Perez |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4.14 |
| Jack Ralston |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3.68 |
| Josh Ekness W |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3.54 |
| Michael Petersen |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3.11 |
| Tyler Zuber |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5.67 |
| Victor Vodnik |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5.08 |
| Edward Cabrera |
|
0.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5.96 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn |
|
0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3.93 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Stowers |
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Joe Mack |
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javier Sanoja |
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Seiya Suzuki |
|
6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Ian Happ |
|
6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Agustin Ramirez |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Griffin Conine |
|
6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jakob Marsee |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Carson Kelly |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Michael Busch |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Heriberto Hernandez |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Otto Lopez |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
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