MLB Final Intelligence
Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals โ Recap
June 27, 2026 ยท Busch Stadium ยท View Preview
Game Recap
The Miami Marlins, entering the game with a 56-55 record, defied pregame expectations tonight by securing a convincing 5-1 upset victory over the favored St. Louis Cardinals, whose implied probability of winning sat at 56%. From the outset, the Marlins steadily built an early lead and maintained control, preventing the 54-56 Cardinals from ever truly mounting a threat.
Miami's offense initiated their scoring in the top of the first inning when Stowers singled to right field, allowing Lopez to cross the plate for an early 1-0 advantage. Stowers continued his production in the third, hitting another single, this time to center, which scored Mack and doubled the lead to 2-0. The Marlins further extended their cushion in the fourth inning. Sanoja singled to right, plating Marsee, and then Xavier Edwards followed with a single to left, bringing Sanoja home before Edwards was thrown out attempting to stretch it into a double, giving Miami a commanding 4-0 lead.
The Cardinals finally managed to get on the scoreboard in the bottom of the sixth inning when Winn singled to right, allowing Walker to score and moving Nootbaar to second, cutting the deficit to 4-1. However, any hopes of a St. Louis rally were quickly dampened. In the top of the seventh, the Marlins responded as Lopez singled to right, scoring Edwards and advancing to second himself, restoring Miami's four-run lead at 5-1.
Outstanding individual performances were key to the Marlins' success. Xavier Edwards was a force at the plate, collecting three hits, driving in one run, and scoring another to lead the offensive charge. On the pitching side, Ryan Gusto delivered a masterful relief appearance, tossing 3.1 innings without allowing an earned run and striking out four batters, effectively shutting down the Cardinals' lineup. The upset win improves the Marlins' record to 57-55, while the Cardinals drop to 54-57, marking a significant victory for the underdog Miami squad.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the St. Louis Cardinals (-143, 56% implied) over the Miami Marlins. Final: the Miami Marlins won 5โ1, pulling off the upset.
Player of the Game
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante L |
|
6.2 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3.83 |
| Ryan Gusto |
|
3.1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5.06 |
| Lake Bachar |
|
2.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.05 |
| Justin Bruihl |
|
2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3.89 |
| Anthony Bender |
|
1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2.62 |
| John King W |
|
1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2.00 |
| Matt Svanson |
|
0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7.20 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Sanoja |
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Edwards |
|
5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Stowers |
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Otto Lopez |
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| JJ Wetherholt |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lars Nootbaar |
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Masyn Winn |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Griffin Conine |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jakob Marsee |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Ivan Herrera |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Walker |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
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