MLB Final Intelligence
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds β Recap
September 5, 2026 Β· Great American Ball Park Β· View Preview
Game Recap
Cincinnati pulled off a 5-3 upset victory over the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday, overcoming a pregame market that heavily favored Milwaukee and a sophisticated analytical model that gave the Brewers a 72% chance of winning. The Reds showcased a resilient offense, consistently answering Milwaukee's scoring efforts and eventually securing the lead for good in the late innings of a tight contest.
Milwaukee initially jumped ahead in the first inning when Contreras launched a 401-foot solo home run to center field. The Reds quickly responded, as Elly De La Cruz immediately countered with a 438-foot blast to center, knotting the score at one. An inning later, Milwaukee regained the advantage as Lara grounded out, bringing Hamilton home. Cincinnati again erased the deficit in the fourth inning when Trevino singled to right, scoring Bleday. Stephenson's 392-foot solo homer in the sixth then put the Reds ahead for the first time.
The game remained a seesaw battle into the seventh. Milwaukee pulled even after Chourioβs sacrifice fly plated Pratt, but Cincinnati wasted no time reclaiming the lead. McLain delivered a decisive 352-foot home run to right field in the bottom half of the inning, putting the Reds up 4-3. This late-game power surge, combined with Elly De La Cruz's earlier home run and two-hit performance, proved critical in giving the Reds the edge. Andrew Abbott's solid four-inning outing, allowing just one earned run while striking out five, helped keep the game within reach during the early frames. The Brewers, despite their pregame pitching advantage, could not contain Cincinnati's persistent attack when it mattered most.
Ultimately, the Reds' sustained offensive pressure and timely hitting allowed them to overcome a statistically favored opponent, demonstrating a knack for seizing crucial late-inning opportunities, including an insurance run in the eighth when SuΓ‘rez scored on an Anderson wild pitch. Following this hard-fought victory, the Milwaukee Brewers' record stands at 88-55, while the Cincinnati Reds improved to 68-74.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the Milwaukee Brewers (-163, 59% implied) over the Cincinnati Reds. Final: the Cincinnati Reds won 5β3, pulling off the upset.
SportsFBI's model favored the Milwaukee Brewers (72% confidence). Final: the Cincinnati Reds won 5β3, missing the call.
Player of the Game
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott |
|
4.0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4.43 |
| Dustin May |
|
3.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4.69 |
| DL Hall |
|
1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2.19 |
| Brock Burke |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2.54 |
| Emilio Pagan S |
|
1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3.96 |
| Julian Garcia |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3.15 |
| Tejay Antone |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3.59 |
| Tony Santillan W |
|
1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6.63 |
| Aaron Ashby L |
|
1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3.19 |
| Grant Anderson |
|
1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3.51 |
| JoJo Romero |
|
1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.35 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz |
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Eugenio Suarez |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hector Rodriguez |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sal Stewart |
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| David Hamilton |
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Gary Sanchez |
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt McLain |
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Stephenson |
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| William Contreras |
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Jose Trevino |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jackson Chourio |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| JJ Bleday |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Andrew Vaughn |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cooper Pratt |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
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