MLB Final Intelligence
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates β Recap
September 17, 2026 Β· PNC Park Β· View Preview
Game Recap
The Pittsburgh Pirates delivered an upset victory over the Milwaukee Brewers, who had been heavily favored, riding a five-run second inning and a late two-run blast to secure the win. The Brewers were expected to prevail by both pregame market odds and SportsFBI's model, but they could not overcome Pittsburgh's early offensive surge and a decisive answer to their own late rally.
The Brewers initially opened the scoring in the second inning when Hamilton singled to left, bringing home Ortiz. However, Pittsburgh immediately answered with a dominant bottom half. Griffinβs double plated Simon and Triolo, giving the Pirates the lead. Cruz followed with a single that scored Davis and Griffin, and Lowe was hit by a pitch with the bases loaded, forcing home Cruz to cap the five-run frame, putting Pittsburgh ahead 5-1. Milwaukee chipped away at the deficit in the sixth inning after Ortiz scored on a throwing error by shortstop Griffin. The Brewers further narrowed the gap in the eighth inning with Frelickβs sacrifice fly scoring Mitchell, followed by Naylorβs solo home run, pulling Milwaukee within a single run.
The Pirates' explosive second inning, where they scored five runs, proved to be the pivotal moment, establishing a lead they would not relinquish despite Milwaukee's persistent efforts. That inning saw Griffin's two-run double and Cruz's two-run single combine to create a significant early advantage. While Milwaukee mounted a comeback in the eighth, scoring two runs to make it a one-run game, the Pirates immediately extinguished the threat. Henry Davis provided the ultimate insurance in the bottom of the eighth, crushing a 423-foot, two-run home run that also scored Simon, pushing Pittsburgh's lead back to three runs and sealing the outcome. Despite Garrett Stallings' impressive three innings of scoreless relief for Milwaukee, recording six strikeouts, the damage from the second inning and Davis's late blast was too much to overcome.
Ultimately, the Piratesβ ability to capitalize on their scoring opportunities, particularly their five-run second inning and Davis's late-game heroics, allowed them to hold off a strong Brewers team. The underdog's decisive answers to Milwaukee's rallies cemented a hard-fought win. Following the game, the Brewers' record moved to 95-58, while the Pirates improved to 76-77.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the Milwaukee Brewers (-135, 55% implied) over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Final: the Pittsburgh Pirates won 7β4, pulling off the upset.
SportsFBI's model favored the Milwaukee Brewers (62% confidence). Final: the Pittsburgh Pirates won 7β4, missing the call.
Player of the Game
Turning Point
The game turned in the 2nd inning, when the Pittsburgh Pirates scored 5 runs.
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khristian Curtis W |
|
3.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4.67 |
| Garrett Stallings |
|
3.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.00 |
| Wilber Dotel |
|
2.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4.82 |
| Kyle Harrison L |
|
1.2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4.25 |
| Chad Patrick |
|
1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3.16 |
| Mason Montgomery S |
|
1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2.67 |
| Aaron Ashby |
|
1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3.31 |
| JoJo Romero |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.66 |
| Camilo Doval |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4.06 |
| Gregory Soto |
|
0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.84 |
| Luke Weaver |
|
0.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2.84 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sal Frelick |
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bo Naylor |
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Henry Davis |
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Konnor Griffin |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Oneil Cruz |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| David Hamilton |
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Lowe |
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Brice Turang |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Cooper Pratt |
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Mitchell |
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Gary Sanchez |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joey Ortiz |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Bryan Reynolds |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared Triolo |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Ronny Simon |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
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