โ† MLB

MLB Final Intelligence

PIT 68-71
3 โ€“ 2
FINAL
SD 73-67

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres โ€” Recap

August 24, 2026  ยท Petco Park  ยท View Preview

๐Ÿ“ฐGame Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates edged the San Diego Padres in a tight extra-inning affair, securing the go-ahead run in the 12th after the Padres clawed back to tie the game in the eighth. This hard-fought victory against the favored Padres marked a significant upset for Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh broke the scoreless tie in the sixth inning when Esmerlyn Valdez launched a solo home run to center field. The Pirates extended their lead shortly after, as Flores Jr. doubled home Reynolds. San Diego responded in the bottom half of the inning when Fermin scored on a balk, cutting the deficit to one. The Padres then knotted the score in the eighth inning courtesy of Jake Cronenworth's single, which brought home Harris.

Despite the Padres' late-game rally, Pittsburgh's bullpen held firm in the ensuing innings, giving their offense another chance. The decisive moment arrived in the top of the 12th when Gonzales singled to center, driving in Triolo for the eventual winning run. This late push from the Pirates defied pregame expectations, which had strongly favored San Diego due to their starting pitching quality and overall implied probability. Braxton Ashcraft's strong outing, allowing just one earned run over six innings, had established a solid foundation for Pittsburgh.

The Pirates' ability to capitalize in extra innings after surrendering their initial lead ultimately sealed their narrow victory, overcoming both the home team and advanced pregame projections. Pittsburgh now stands at 64-69, while San Diego's record moves to 71-61.

#MLB #PittsburghPirates #SanDiegoPadres #EsmerlynValdez #BraxtonAshcraft

How the Prediction Fared

โšก Upset

Pregame, the market favored the San Diego Padres (-108, 50% implied) over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Final: the Pittsburgh Pirates won 3โ€“2, pulling off the upset.

โšก Model Missed

SportsFBI's model favored the San Diego Padres (52% confidence). Final: the Pittsburgh Pirates won 3โ€“2, missing the call.

Player of the Game

Esmerlyn Valdez
At the Plate
3 AB, 1 H, 1 HR, 1 RBI
Braxton Ashcraft
On the Mound
6.0 IP, 2 K, 1 ER

Linescore

123456789101112 RHE
PIT 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 90
SD 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 70

Pitching

Pitcher Team IP H R ER BB K ERA
Braxton Ashcraft 6.0 4 1 1 1 2 3.59
Robbie Ray 5.1 5 2 2 2 5 3.21
Adrian Morejon 2.0 0 0 0 1 2 2.66
Mason Montgomery 1.1 1 0 0 0 1 3.25
Camilo Doval 1.0 0 0 0 0 1 3.91
Gregory Soto 1.0 0 0 0 1 1 3.38
Kirby Yates W 1.0 0 0 0 2 1 3.32
Yohan Ramirez S 1.0 0 0 0 0 3 3.15
Jeremiah Estrada L 1.0 1 1 0 0 1 3.48
Kyle Hart 1.0 1 0 0 0 1 4.05
Mason Miller 1.0 1 0 0 1 2 0.81
Yuki Matsui 1.0 0 0 0 1 2 2.13
Luke Weaver 0.2 2 1 1 2 1 2.36
Bradgley Rodriguez 0.2 1 0 0 0 2 2.02

Batting

Batter Team AB H HR RBI R BB K
Nick Gonzales 5 2 0 1 0 1 0
Rafael Flores Jr. 4 2 0 1 0 1 0
Jake Cronenworth 5 2 0 1 0 0 1
Jared Triolo 4 2 0 0 1 1 0
Freddy Fermin 2 2 0 0 1 0 0
Esmerlyn Valdez 3 1 1 1 1 1 2
Bryan Reynolds 5 1 0 0 1 1 1
Spencer Horwitz 5 1 0 0 0 0 2
Austin Hays 3 1 0 0 0 0 2
Dustin Harris 5 1 0 0 1 0 1
Ty France 3 1 0 0 0 2 0

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