NBA Final Intelligence
Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets β Recap
October 21, 2026 Β· View Preview
Game Recap
The Houston Rockets established early control before unleashing a dominant second quarter that ultimately sealed their 128-110 victory over the Dallas Mavericks. After a closely contested opening period that saw Houston leading 32-26, the Rockets exploded in the second quarter, outscoring Dallas by a significant 38-12 margin to take a commanding lead into halftime. Though the Mavericks battled back in the second half, winning both the third and fourth quarters, their efforts were insufficient to overcome the early deficit. SportsFBI's model had indicated a 70% probability of a Houston win, aligning with the outcome.
Houston's offensive prowess was on full display, particularly through the collective efforts of Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., and Alperen Sengun. Durant and Smith Jr. each contributed 30 points, with Smith Jr. adding four three-pointers on 11-of-18 shooting, while Durant hit two threes on 10-of-16 shooting and grabbed six rebounds. Sengun complemented their scoring with a double-double of 23 points and 10 rebounds, along with five assists and two three-pointers, on 9-of-15 shooting. This balanced attack allowed the Rockets to maintain their substantial advantage throughout the contest.
Dallas saw a standout performance from Cooper Flagg, who led all scorers with 32 points on 10-of-17 shooting, adding five rebounds and two assists. Marcus Sasser provided an efficient spark off the bench, tallying 17 points with four three-pointers on 6-of-8 shooting. The Mavericks showed resilience after halftime, outscoring the Rockets 38-30 in the third quarter and 34-28 in the fourth, but the 26-point deficit created in the second period proved too large to surmount despite their persistent push.
How the Prediction Fared
SportsFBI's model, locked before tip-off, favored the Houston Rockets (70% confidence). It gave a 16% chance of a 20+ point margin; the game was decided by 18 points.
Standouts
Full box score, every player's line and the play-by-play are available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.
Linescore
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 26 | 12 | 38 | 34 | 110 | |
| HOU | 32 | 38 | 30 | 28 | 128 |
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