NBA Final Intelligence
Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks β Recap
October 30, 2026 Β· View Preview
Game Recap
The Dallas Mavericks surged in the fourth quarter to defeat the Houston Rockets 116-111, overcoming a mid-game deficit built by Houston's strong second and third periods. Despite the SportsFBI model favoring Houston with a 66% probability of winning, the Mavericks' late-game execution proved decisive.
Dallas established an early lead, outscoring Houston 27-20 in the opening quarter. However, the Rockets responded emphatically in the second, putting up 31 points while holding the Mavericks to just 17, swinging the momentum and taking a halftime lead. Kevin Durant was a key factor in Houston's resurgence, contributing 28 points and 5 rebounds overall.
Houston maintained a narrow advantage through the third quarter, adding 33 points to Dallas' 32, which kept the game close heading into the final frame. The Mavericks, however, unleashed a dominant 40-point fourth quarter, spearheaded by the prolific scoring of Kyrie Irving and Cooper Flagg. Irving, who finished with 35 points, 4 rebounds, 9 assists, and five three-pointers on 12-of-19 shooting, along with Flagg's 33 points, 9 rebounds, and 6 assists on 13-of-19 shooting, proved too much for the Rockets to contain down the stretch. Daniel Gafford also contributed significantly for Dallas with 18 points on efficient 6-of-7 shooting, while Jabari Smith Jr. added 22 points for the Rockets.
How the Prediction Fared
SportsFBI's model, locked before tip-off, favored the Houston Rockets (66% confidence). It gave a 14% chance of a 20+ point margin; the game was decided by 5 points.
Standouts
Full box score, every player's line and the play-by-play are available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.
Linescore
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 20 | 31 | 33 | 27 | 111 | |
| DAL | 27 | 17 | 32 | 40 | 116 |
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