Bryce Young
Baker Mayfield
NFL · MATCHUP INTELLIGENCE
November 30, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET
Panthers vs Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium
CAR 3-2 · TB 1-5
Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Carolina Panthers face Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 12 at Raymond James Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Carolina Panthers enter with a 3-2 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 29.2 points scored and 24.6 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter with a 1-5 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 19.8 points scored and 23.0 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Carolina Panthers’s 29.2 points per game against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense allowing 23.0. In the other direction, Tampa Bay Buccaneers average 19.8 against Carolina Panthers’s 24.6 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Carolina Panthers have injury designations to monitor: Jaelan Phillips (LB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers have injury designations to monitor: Baker Mayfield (QB) — Questionable; Benjamin Morrison (CB) — Questionable; Antoine Winfield Jr. (S) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers are Home field / environment; Run-game matchup.
The strongest model adjustments toward Carolina Panthers are Record quality; Recent form.
The current model leans toward CAR at 53.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Carolina Panthers 3-2
- 🏈 Record: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-5
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
TBH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
TB home field | TB 43 days / CAR 43 days
CARA Record quality +0.87 Very Strong
TB 1-5 · CAR 3-2
TBH Run-game matchup +0.77 Strong
TB 4.8 rush Y/A / 3.4 allowed | CAR 4.3 / 5.1 | PBP 84% stuff avoided | 77% stuff avoided
CARA Recent form +0.45 Moderate
TB L1 · CAR W2
CARA Starting QB efficiency +0.44 Weak
Baker Mayfield (2026) 63.5% CMP / 6.4 Y/A / 2.1% TD / 2.1% INT / 80.0 RATE · Bryce Young (2026) 60.2% CMP / 7.7 Y/A / 5.5% TD / 1.0% INT / 98.5 RATE
CARA Early-down efficiency +0.40 Weak
39% / 41% allowed | 45% / 42% allowed
CARA OL vs DL matchup +0.36 Weak
TB OL sack 10.2% / DEF sack 4.9% | CAR 5.6% / 5.5%
CARA Explosive-play differential +0.34 Weak
5% / 5% allowed | 7% / 5% allowed
CARA Pass defense +0.30 Weak
TB 5.9 net Y/A / 66.5% CMP / 87.5 RATE | CAR 5.5 / 60.3% / 82.4
TBH Schedule strength +0.27 Moderate
TB 66% opp wins · CAR 52%
TBH Third-down efficiency +0.22 Weak
TB OFF 36.8% / DEF 33.8% | CAR 38.8% / 42.0% | PBP 70%/56%/22% | 58%/43%/33%
CARA Raw scoring differential +0.18 Weak
TB 19.8 PPG · CAR 29.2 PPG | TB 23.0 PA/G · CAR 24.6 PA/G
CARA Turnover differential +0.13 Weak
TB 1.8 GIVE / 1.3 TAKE | CAR 0.8 / 1.4
CARA Game-script tendencies +0.08 Weak
52% neutral pass / 58 plays | 63% / 66
TBH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.06 Weak
47% / 53% allowed | 67% / 77% allowed
CARA Special teams efficiency +0.02 Weak
TB FG 100.0% / NET PUNT 38.7 | CAR 100.0% / 44.8
See the Full Analysis
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