Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Chicago Bears face Detroit Lions in Week 12 at Ford Field. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Chicago Bears enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.0 points scored and 19.8 allowed.
Detroit Lions enter with a 3-2 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 32.8 points scored and 29.6 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Chicago Bears’s 25.0 points per game against a Detroit Lions defense allowing 29.6. In the other direction, Detroit Lions average 32.8 against Chicago Bears’s 19.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Chicago Bears have injury designations to monitor: T.J. Edwards (LB) — Questionable; Jonah Jackson (G) — Questionable; Tony Fields II (LB) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Detroit Lions have injury designations to monitor: Rock Ya-Sin (CB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Detroit Lions are Home field / environment; Early-down efficiency.
The strongest model adjustments toward Chicago Bears are Third-down efficiency; Raw scoring differential.
The current model leans toward DET at 54.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Chicago Bears 4-2
- 🏈 Record: Detroit Lions 3-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
DETH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
DET home field | DET 46 days / CHI 39 days
DETH Early-down efficiency +0.56 Moderate
51% / 48% allowed | 43% / 45% allowed
CHIA Third-down efficiency +0.46 Strong
DET OFF 37.3% / DEF 50.7% | CHI 45.5% / 25.8% | PBP 44%/63%/24% | 53%/60%/25%
DETH Starting QB efficiency +0.25 Weak
Jared Goff (2026) 67.0% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 6.3% TD / 0.0% INT / 111.3 RATE · Caleb Williams (2026) 72.5% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 3.3% TD / 1.1% INT / 101.5 RATE
CHIA Raw scoring differential +0.14 Weak
DET 32.8 PPG · CHI 25.0 PPG | DET 29.6 PA/G · CHI 19.8 PA/G
DETH Special teams efficiency +0.14 Weak
DET FG 100.0% / NET PUNT 44.4 | CHI 72.7% / 45.6
DETH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.14 Weak
77% / 76% allowed | 50% / 67% allowed
CHIA Record quality +0.13 Weak
DET 3-2 · CHI 4-2
CHIA Schedule strength +0.12 Weak
DET 49% opp wins · CHI 54%
DETH OL vs DL matchup +0.10 Weak
DET OL sack 5.4% / DEF sack 8.6% | CHI 6.7% / 9.4%
DETH Explosive-play differential +0.10 Weak
6% / 8% allowed | 6% / 8% allowed
DETH Turnover differential +0.08 Weak
DET 0.2 GIVE / 1.0 TAKE | CHI 1.8 / 1.5
CHIA Pass defense +0.07 Weak
DET 6.4 net Y/A / 68.1% CMP / 106.3 RATE | CHI 7.1 / 62.6% / 99.9
DETH Game-script tendencies +0.05 Weak
58% neutral pass / 63 plays | 52% / 69
CHIA Run-game matchup +0.04 Weak
DET 4.4 rush Y/A / 4.2 allowed | CHI 4.5 / 4.5 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 81% stuff avoided
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