Joe Burrow
Jayden Daniels
NFL · MATCHUP INTELLIGENCE
November 23, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET
Bengals vs Commanders
Northwest Stadium
CIN 3-2 · WSH 1-4
Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Cincinnati Bengals face Washington Commanders in Week 11 at Northwest Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Cincinnati Bengals enter with a 3-2 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.6 points scored and 21.8 allowed.
Washington Commanders enter with a 1-4-1 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 22.0 points scored and 28.7 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Cincinnati Bengals’s 25.6 points per game against a Washington Commanders defense allowing 28.7. In the other direction, Washington Commanders average 22.0 against Cincinnati Bengals’s 21.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Cincinnati Bengals have injury designations to monitor: Colbie Young (WR) — Questionable; Kyle Dugger (S) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Washington Commanders have injury designations to monitor: Javon Kinlaw (DT) — Questionable; Marcus Mariota (QB) — Doubtful; Charles Omenihu (DE) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Washington Commanders are Home field / environment; Explosive-play differential.
The strongest model adjustments toward Cincinnati Bengals are Record quality; OL vs DL matchup.
The current model leans toward CIN at 55.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Cincinnati Bengals 3-2
- 🏈 Record: Washington Commanders 1-4-1
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
WSHH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
WSH home field | WSH 35 days / CIN 43 days
CINA Record quality +0.87 Very Strong
WSH 1-4 · CIN 3-2
CINA OL vs DL matchup +0.67 Moderate
WSH OL sack 6.5% / DEF sack 4.8% | CIN 4.5% / 9.2%
CINA Early-down efficiency +0.65 Moderate
41% / 48% allowed | 45% / 45% allowed
WSHH Explosive-play differential +0.57 Moderate
6% / 6% allowed | 5% / 8% allowed
CINA Pass defense +0.56 Moderate
WSH 6.6 net Y/A / 66.2% CMP / 105.0 RATE | CIN 6.0 / 62.5% / 87.0
CINA Starting QB efficiency +0.44 Weak
Jayden Daniels (2026) 64.7% CMP / 6.5 Y/A / 4.3% TD / 0.0% INT / 97.6 RATE · Joe Burrow (2026) 71.4% CMP / 7.2 Y/A / 5.8% TD / 1.6% INT / 104.4 RATE
CINA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.42 Strong
56% / 77% allowed | 53% / 41% allowed
WSHH Run-game matchup +0.41 Moderate
WSH 4.6 rush Y/A / 4.0 allowed | CIN 3.6 / 5.0 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 81% stuff avoided
CINA Recent form +0.30 Moderate
WSH L1 · CIN W1
WSHH Schedule strength +0.29 Strong
WSH 51% opp wins · CIN 37%
CINA Raw scoring differential +0.27 Moderate
WSH 22.0 PPG · CIN 25.6 PPG | WSH 28.7 PA/G · CIN 21.8 PA/G
CINA Third-down efficiency +0.18 Weak
WSH OFF 30.9% / DEF 44.4% | CIN 50.0% / 46.0% | PBP 63%/39%/21% | 65%/63%/32%
CINA Game-script tendencies +0.16 Weak
52% neutral pass / 61 plays | 61% / 60
WSHH Turnover differential +0.06 Weak
WSH 0.3 GIVE / 1.3 TAKE | CIN 1.2 / 1.6
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