Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Houston Texans face Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16 at Lincoln Financial Field. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Houston Texans enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 24.0 points scored and 23.8 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
Philadelphia Eagles enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 17.7 points scored and 22.8 allowed. Their current streak is 4 losses.
The scoring matchup puts Houston Texans’s 24.0 points per game against a Philadelphia Eagles defense allowing 22.8. In the other direction, Philadelphia Eagles average 17.7 against Houston Texans’s 23.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Houston Texans have injury designations to monitor: Reed Blankenship (S) — Questionable; David Montgomery (RB) — Questionable; Jalen Pitre (S) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Philadelphia Eagles have injury designations to monitor: Saquon Barkley (RB) — Questionable; Nolan Smith Jr. (LB) — Questionable; Michael Carter II (CB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Philadelphia Eagles are Home field / environment; Red-zone TD efficiency.
The strongest model adjustments toward Houston Texans are Recent form; Early-down efficiency.
The current model leans toward HOU at 53.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Houston Texans 2-4
- 🏈 Record: Philadelphia Eagles 2-4
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
PHIH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
PHI home field | PHI 67 days / HOU 67 days
HOUA Recent form +0.90 Very Strong
PHI L4 · HOU W2
HOUA Early-down efficiency +0.73 Moderate
37% / 42% allowed | 46% / 44% allowed
HOUA OL vs DL matchup +0.63 Moderate
PHI OL sack 7.4% / DEF sack 3.6% | HOU 6.0% / 7.6%
HOUA Explosive-play differential +0.44 Moderate
4% / 5% allowed | 7% / 7% allowed
PHIH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.27 Moderate
63% / 54% allowed | 57% / 63% allowed
HOUA Starting QB efficiency +0.27 Weak
Tanner McKee (2026) 57.8% CMP / 4.8 Y/A / 2.2% TD / 0.0% INT / 77.5 RATE · C.J. Stroud (2026) 65.3% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 4.1% TD / 0.5% INT / 100.9 RATE
PHIH Game-script tendencies +0.26 Weak
56% neutral pass / 55 plays | 60% / 60
PHIH Third-down efficiency +0.22 Weak
PHI OFF 37.3% / DEF 38.9% | HOU 39.0% / 40.8% | PBP 47%/61%/27% | 65%/22%/31%
HOUA Raw scoring differential +0.12 Weak
PHI 17.7 PPG · HOU 24.0 PPG | PHI 22.8 PA/G · HOU 23.8 PA/G
HOUA Turnover differential +0.11 Weak
PHI 0.8 GIVE / 0.5 TAKE | HOU 0.5 / 1.0
PHIH Run-game matchup +0.10 Weak
PHI 3.7 rush Y/A / 4.0 allowed | HOU 3.6 / 3.4 | PBP 73% stuff avoided | 79% stuff avoided
HOUA Schedule strength +0.08 Weak
PHI 45% opp wins · HOU 49%
PHIH Special teams efficiency +0.04 Weak
PHI FG 100.0% / NET PUNT 44.1 | HOU 92.9% / 43.7
HOUA Pass defense +0.01 Weak
PHI 6.5 net Y/A / 60.4% CMP / 88.2 RATE | HOU 6.3 / 65.6% / 96.6
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