Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Indianapolis Colts face Houston Texans in Week 11 at Reliant Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Indianapolis Colts enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 24.0 points scored and 27.3 allowed. Their current streak is 2 losses.
Houston Texans enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 24.0 points scored and 23.8 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
The scoring matchup puts Indianapolis Colts’s 24.0 points per game against a Houston Texans defense allowing 23.8. In the other direction, Houston Texans average 24.0 against Indianapolis Colts’s 27.3 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Indianapolis Colts have injury designations to monitor: Jaylon Carlies (LB) — Questionable; Sauce Gardner (CB) — Doubtful; Anthony Gould (WR) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Houston Texans have injury designations to monitor: Reed Blankenship (S) — Questionable; David Montgomery (RB) — Questionable; Jalen Pitre (S) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Houston Texans are Starting QB efficiency; Home field / environment.
The strongest model adjustments toward Indianapolis Colts are Third-down efficiency; Special teams efficiency.
The current model leans toward HOU at 60.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Indianapolis Colts 2-4
- 🏈 Record: Houston Texans 2-4
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
HOUH Starting QB efficiency +1.5 Strong
C.J. Stroud (2026) 65.3% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 4.1% TD / 0.5% INT / 100.9 RATE · Daniel Jones (2026) 59.6% CMP / 5.9 Y/A / 1.8% TD / 2.8% INT / 71.1 RATE
HOUH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
HOU home field | HOU 32 days / IND 32 days
HOUH Recent form +0.60 Strong
HOU W2 · IND L2
HOUH OL vs DL matchup +0.31 Weak
HOU OL sack 6.0% / DEF sack 7.6% | IND 6.4% / 5.0%
HOUH Early-down efficiency +0.29 Weak
46% / 44% allowed | 44% / 45% allowed
HOUH Turnover differential +0.24 Moderate
HOU 0.5 GIVE / 1.0 TAKE | IND 1.8 / 0.5
INDA Third-down efficiency +0.23 Moderate
HOU OFF 39.0% / DEF 40.8% | IND 37.3% / 30.4% | PBP 65%/22%/31% | 64%/45%/11%
HOUH Run-game matchup +0.20 Weak
HOU 3.6 rush Y/A / 3.4 allowed | IND 4.0 / 4.8 | PBP 79% stuff avoided | 81% stuff avoided
HOUH Pass defense +0.18 Weak
HOU 6.3 net Y/A / 65.6% CMP / 96.6 RATE | IND 6.9 / 61.4% / 98.2
HOUH Game-script tendencies +0.16 Weak
60% neutral pass / 60 plays | 55% / 63
INDA Special teams efficiency +0.13 Weak
HOU FG 92.9% / NET PUNT 43.7 | IND 100.0% / 44.2
HOUH Explosive-play differential +0.12 Weak
7% / 7% allowed | 6% / 6% allowed
INDA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.12 Weak
57% / 63% allowed | 63% / 61% allowed
HOUH Raw scoring differential +0.08 Weak
HOU 24.0 PPG · IND 24.0 PPG | HOU 23.8 PA/G · IND 27.3 PA/G
INDA Schedule strength +0.05 Weak
HOU 49% opp wins · IND 51%
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