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Passing TDs
1.5
77 · UNDER
EVIDENCE
Market Support
+10
Cross-Vendor Consensus
+14
Confirmed Role
+14
Fantasy Market Conviction
+9
Opponent Position Matchup
+3
Game Script
+10
Prop Line vs Projection
+6
Hit Rate
+18
Recent Form
+12
Season Average vs. Line
+10
Consistency
+5
Recent Pass Attempt Volume
+12
Passing Yards per Attempt
+8
Offensive Sack Avoidance
+2
Completion Percentage over Expectation
+2
Red-zone Pass Attempts per Game
+4
Opponent Pass Yards per Attempt Allowed
+4
Opponent Explosive Pass Rate Allowed
+6
Score = 77
CONFIDENCE
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
See Every Key Suspect
Full Suspects list with evidence breakdowns and player prop edges for every NFL game — available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.