Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Indianapolis Colts face Minnesota Vikings in Week 7 at U.S. Bank Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Indianapolis Colts enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 24.0 points scored and 27.3 allowed. Their current streak is 2 losses.
Minnesota Vikings enter with a 5-0 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 21.8 points scored and 12.8 allowed. Their current streak is 5 wins.
The scoring matchup puts Indianapolis Colts’s 24.0 points per game against a Minnesota Vikings defense allowing 12.8. In the other direction, Minnesota Vikings average 21.8 against Indianapolis Colts’s 27.3 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
The opening market has Minnesota Vikings favored by 2.5 points and a total of 46.5 points. These are market expectations, separate from the model’s projected lean.
Indianapolis Colts have injury designations to monitor: Jaylon Carlies (LB) — Questionable; Sauce Gardner (CB) — Doubtful; Anthony Gould (WR) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Minnesota Vikings have injury designations to monitor: Jordan Addison (WR) — Questionable; Christian Darrisaw (OT) — Questionable; T.J. Hockenson (TE) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Minnesota Vikings are Home field / environment; Record quality.
The strongest model adjustments toward Indianapolis Colts are Game-script tendencies; Schedule strength.
The current model leans toward MIN at 72.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Indianapolis Colts 2-4
- 🏈 Record: Minnesota Vikings 5-0
- 📈 Market (opening): Minnesota Vikings favored by 2.5 points; a total of 46.5 points
- 🔮 Projected score: IND 14, MIN 27
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
MINH Home field / environment +2.0 Very Strong
MIN home field | MIN 14 days / IND 7 days
MINH Record quality +1.0 Very Strong
MIN 5-0 · IND 2-4
MINH Recent form +1.0 Very Strong
MIN W5 · IND L2
MINH Pass defense +0.81 Moderate
MIN 5.0 net Y/A / 53.2% CMP / 62.9 RATE | IND 6.9 / 61.4% / 98.2
MINH Starting QB efficiency +0.48 Weak
Kyler Murray (2026) 68.3% CMP / 6.6 Y/A / 2.0% TD / 2.0% INT / 84.7 RATE · Daniel Jones (2026) 59.6% CMP / 5.9 Y/A / 1.8% TD / 2.8% INT / 71.1 RATE
INDA Game-script tendencies +0.35 Moderate
52% neutral pass / 58 plays | 55% / 63
MINH Turnover differential +0.32 Strong
MIN 0.8 GIVE / 2.0 TAKE | IND 1.8 / 0.5
INDA Schedule strength +0.29 Strong
MIN 37% opp wins · IND 51%
MINH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.26 Moderate
50% / 25% allowed | 63% / 61% allowed
MINH OL vs DL matchup +0.22 Weak
MIN OL sack 9.7% / DEF sack 9.8% | IND 6.4% / 5.0%
MINH Raw scoring differential +0.19 Weak
MIN 21.8 PPG · IND 24.0 PPG | MIN 12.8 PA/G · IND 27.3 PA/G
INDA Explosive-play differential +0.17 Weak
5% / 5% allowed | 6% / 6% allowed
MINH Third-down efficiency +0.14 Weak
MIN OFF 38.0% / DEF 22.2% | IND 37.3% / 30.4% | PBP 80%/48%/21% | 64%/45%/11%
MINH Run-game matchup +0.10 Weak
MIN 3.8 rush Y/A / 4.0 allowed | IND 4.0 / 4.8 | PBP 79% stuff avoided | 81% stuff avoided
MINH Early-down efficiency +0.08 Weak
33% / 34% allowed | 44% / 45% allowed
INDA Special teams efficiency +0.03 Weak
MIN FG 100.0% / NET PUNT 41.0 | IND 100.0% / 44.2
Betting Lines DraftKings
🔍 Key Suspects
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
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