Detroit Lions Projected to Beat Green Bay Packers — Preview & Odds

Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis

Green Bay Packers face Detroit Lions in Week 7 at Ford Field. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.

Green Bay Packers enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 21.2 points scored and 20.8 allowed. Their current streak is 3 wins.

Detroit Lions enter with a 3-2 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 32.8 points scored and 29.6 allowed.

The scoring matchup puts Green Bay Packers’s 21.2 points per game against a Detroit Lions defense allowing 29.6. In the other direction, Detroit Lions average 32.8 against Green Bay Packers’s 20.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.

The opening market has Detroit Lions favored by 2.5 points and a total of 50.5 points. These are market expectations, separate from the model’s projected lean.

Green Bay Packers have injury designations to monitor: Aaron Banks (G) — Questionable; Benjamin St-Juste (CB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.

Detroit Lions have injury designations to monitor: Rock Ya-Sin (CB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.

The strongest model adjustments toward Detroit Lions are Home field / environment; Starting QB efficiency.

The strongest model adjustments toward Green Bay Packers are Explosive-play differential; Pass defense.

The current model leans toward DET at 70.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.

🏈 Record: Green Bay Packers 4-2
🏈 Record: Detroit Lions 3-2
📈 Market (opening): Detroit Lions favored by 2.5 points; a total of 50.5 points
🔮 Projected score: GB 24, DET 30

Automated analysis — full AI preview generates about an hour before kickoff.

SportsFBI Model

Projects Detroit Lions to win — 70% confidence

Market agrees (+8pp) Projected score:DET 30 · GB 24 Blowout chance (14+ margin): 31%

⚖️ Game Edges

Key factors driving this matchup

DETH Home field / environment +2.0 Very Strong

DET home field | DET 14 days / GB 7 days

DETH Starting QB efficiency +1.1 Moderate

Jared Goff (2026) 67.0% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 6.3% TD / 0.0% INT / 111.3 RATE · Jordan Love (2026) 59.7% CMP / 7.5 Y/A / 4.9% TD / 1.8% INT / 91.8 RATE

GBA Explosive-play differential +0.84 Strong

6% / 8% allowed | 8% / 4% allowed

DETH Early-down efficiency +0.69 Moderate

51% / 48% allowed | 40% / 44% allowed

GBA Pass defense +0.49 Moderate

DET 6.4 net Y/A / 68.1% CMP / 106.3 RATE | GB 5.1 / 64.5% / 73.9

DETH Run-game matchup +0.46 Moderate

DET 4.4 rush Y/A / 4.2 allowed | GB 2.9 / 4.0 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 69% stuff avoided

GBA Recent form +0.30 Moderate

DET W1 · GB W3

DETH OL vs DL matchup +0.24 Weak

DET OL sack 5.4% / DEF sack 8.6% | GB 5.4% / 6.6%

DETH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.24 Moderate

77% / 76% allowed | 50% / 75% allowed

DETH Game-script tendencies +0.16 Weak

58% neutral pass / 63 plays | 57% / 59

GBA Record quality +0.13 Weak

DET 3-2 · GB 4-2

GBA Turnover differential +0.05 Weak

DET 0.2 GIVE / 1.0 TAKE | GB 1.2 / 1.8

DETH Schedule strength +0.03 Weak

DET 49% opp wins · GB 47%

GBA Third-down efficiency +0.03 Weak

DET OFF 37.3% / DEF 50.7% | GB 35.5% / 43.4% | PBP 44%/63%/24% | 60%/36%/21%

DETH Raw scoring differential +0.02 Weak

DET 32.8 PPG · GB 21.2 PPG | DET 29.6 PA/G · GB 20.8 PA/G

DETH Special teams efficiency +0.02 Weak

DET FG 100.0% / NET PUNT 44.4 | GB 76.9% / 47.3

Betting Lines DraftKings

Spread

GB +3.0 (-110)

DET -3.0 (-110)

Total (O/U)

Over 53.5 (-110)

Under 53.5 (-110)

Moneyline

GB +140

DET -166

🔍 Key Suspects Top 4 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Full rankings, evidence breakdowns, and Hit Rate history are in the workspace.

GB — Away