Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Pittsburgh Steelers face New Orleans Saints in Week 7 at Stade de France. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Pittsburgh Steelers enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 22.8 points scored and 21.3 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
New Orleans Saints enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.3 points scored and 29.7 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Pittsburgh Steelers’s 22.8 points per game against a New Orleans Saints defense allowing 29.7. In the other direction, New Orleans Saints average 25.3 against Pittsburgh Steelers’s 21.3 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
The opening market has Pittsburgh Steelers favored by 2.5 points and a total of 42.5 points. These are market expectations, separate from the model’s projected lean.
Pittsburgh Steelers have injury designations to monitor: Ben Skowronek (WR) — Questionable; Brandin Echols (CB) — Questionable; DeShon Elliott (S) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
New Orleans Saints have injury designations to monitor: Kaden Elliss (LB) — Questionable; Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB) — Questionable; Quincy Riley (CB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward New Orleans Saints are Home field / environment; Schedule strength.
The strongest model adjustments toward Pittsburgh Steelers are Record quality; Pass defense.
The current model leans toward PIT at 62.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Pittsburgh Steelers 4-2
- 🏈 Record: New Orleans Saints 2-4
- 📈 Market (opening): Pittsburgh Steelers favored by 2.5 points; a total of 42.5 points
- 🔮 Projected score: PIT 24, NO 20
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
NOH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
NO home field | NO 7 days / PIT 7 days
PITA Record quality +0.67 Strong
NO 2-4 · PIT 4-2
PITA Pass defense +0.60 Moderate
NO 6.7 net Y/A / 66.5% CMP / 97.8 RATE | PIT 5.7 / 61.7% / 78.6
PITA Run-game matchup +0.42 Moderate
NO 3.8 rush Y/A / 4.8 allowed | PIT 4.6 / 4.0 | PBP 83% stuff avoided | 77% stuff avoided
PITA Early-down efficiency +0.34 Weak
39% / 51% allowed | 42% / 45% allowed
NOH Schedule strength +0.31 Strong
NO 61% opp wins · PIT 46%
NOH OL vs DL matchup +0.24 Weak
NO OL sack 5.2% / DEF sack 7.0% | PIT 7.5% / 7.4%
NOH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.24 Moderate
84% / 62% allowed | 53% / 50% allowed
PITA Recent form +0.15 Weak
NO W1 · PIT W2
PITA Raw scoring differential +0.15 Weak
NO 25.3 PPG · PIT 22.8 PPG | NO 29.7 PA/G · PIT 21.3 PA/G
PITA Turnover differential +0.15 Moderate
NO 2.0 GIVE / 1.5 TAKE | PIT 1.2 / 1.7
PITA Explosive-play differential +0.12 Weak
4% / 7% allowed | 6% / 8% allowed
PITA Special teams efficiency +0.10 Weak
NO FG 70.0% / NET PUNT 41.2 | PIT 76.5% / 46.3
NOH Game-script tendencies +0.10 Weak
56% neutral pass / 64 plays | 64% / 60
NOH Starting QB efficiency +0.07 Weak
Tyler Shough (2026) 65.1% CMP / 6.1 Y/A / 5.1% TD / 2.1% INT / 90.1 RATE · Aaron Rodgers (2026) 61.4% CMP / 6.4 Y/A / 5.2% TD / 2.1% INT / 88.0 RATE
NOH Third-down efficiency +0.03 Weak
NO OFF 42.5% / DEF 44.6% | PIT 32.9% / 32.5% | PBP 77%/42%/29% | 59%/23%/32%
Betting Lines DraftKings
🔍 Key Suspects
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
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All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges — available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.