Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Kansas City Chiefs face Seattle Seahawks in Week 7 at Lumen Field. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Kansas City Chiefs enter with a 5-0 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 28.0 points scored and 16.6 allowed. Their current streak is 5 wins.
Seattle Seahawks enter with a 3-3 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 24.7 points scored and 20.3 allowed. Their current streak is 2 losses.
The scoring matchup puts Kansas City Chiefs’s 28.0 points per game against a Seattle Seahawks defense allowing 20.3. In the other direction, Seattle Seahawks average 24.7 against Kansas City Chiefs’s 16.6 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
The opening market has Seattle Seahawks favored by 2.5 points and a total of 44.5 points. These are market expectations, separate from the model’s projected lean.
Kansas City Chiefs have injury designations to monitor: Rashee Rice (WR) — Questionable; Josh Simmons (OT) — Questionable; Cooper McDonald (LB) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Seattle Seahawks have injury designations to monitor: Drake Thomas (LB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Seattle Seahawks are Home field / environment; Game-script tendencies.
The strongest model adjustments toward Kansas City Chiefs are Starting QB efficiency; Record quality.
The current model leans toward SEA at 55.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Kansas City Chiefs 5-0
- 🏈 Record: Seattle Seahawks 3-3
- 📈 Market (opening): Seattle Seahawks favored by 2.5 points; a total of 44.5 points
- 🌤️ Weather: 53.5°F, 9.2 mph wind
- 🔮 Projected score: KC 21, SEA 22
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
KCA Starting QB efficiency +1.2 Moderate
Sam Darnold (2026) 60.4% CMP / 6.9 Y/A / 4.7% TD / 4.7% INT / 77.4 RATE · Patrick Mahomes (2026) 66.5% CMP / 8.3 Y/A / 5.7% TD / 1.9% INT / 103.1 RATE
KCA Record quality +1.0 Very Strong
SEA 3-3 · KC 5-0
KCA Recent form +1.0 Very Strong
SEA L2 · KC W5
SEAH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
SEA home field | SEA 10 days / KC 7 days
SEAH Game-script tendencies +0.67 Strong
52% neutral pass / 58 plays | 57% / 60
KCA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.52 Strong
52% / 79% allowed | 57% / 42% allowed
SEAH Schedule strength +0.37 Strong
SEA 49% opp wins · KC 30%
KCA Run-game matchup +0.35 Weak
SEA 3.9 rush Y/A / 3.5 allowed | KC 5.5 / 3.5 | PBP 80% stuff avoided | 81% stuff avoided
SEAH Pass defense +0.27 Weak
SEA 4.3 net Y/A / 63.3% CMP / 75.3 RATE | KC 5.7 / 60.9% / 74.1
KCA Early-down efficiency +0.16 Weak
44% / 37% allowed | 49% / 38% allowed
KCA Raw scoring differential +0.14 Weak
SEA 24.7 PPG · KC 28.0 PPG | SEA 20.3 PA/G · KC 16.6 PA/G
KCA Turnover differential +0.13 Weak
SEA 2.0 GIVE / 1.8 TAKE | KC 0.8 / 1.8
SEAH OL vs DL matchup +0.10 Weak
SEA OL sack 7.5% / DEF sack 8.2% | KC 3.7% / 4.2%
SEAH Third-down efficiency +0.04 Weak
SEA OFF 32.4% / DEF 28.0% | KC 41.7% / 35.7% | PBP 53%/53%/19% | 61%/33%/31%
KCA Explosive-play differential +0.03 Weak
6% / 3% allowed | 8% / 5% allowed
KCA Special teams efficiency +0.01 Weak
SEA FG 92.3% / NET PUNT 43.2 | KC 76.9% / 49.5
Betting Lines DraftKings
🔍 Key Suspects
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
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