Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Cincinnati Bengals face Baltimore Ravens in Week 7 at M&T Bank Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Cincinnati Bengals enter with a 3-2 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.6 points scored and 21.8 allowed.
Baltimore Ravens enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 26.0 points scored and 22.0 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Cincinnati Bengals’s 25.6 points per game against a Baltimore Ravens defense allowing 22.0. In the other direction, Baltimore Ravens average 26.0 against Cincinnati Bengals’s 21.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
The opening market has Baltimore Ravens favored by 3.5 points and a total of 51.5 points. These are market expectations, separate from the model’s projected lean.
Cincinnati Bengals have injury designations to monitor: Colbie Young (WR) — Questionable; Kyle Dugger (S) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Baltimore Ravens have injury designations to monitor: Rashod Bateman (WR) — Questionable; Lamar Jackson (QB) — Questionable; Cam Jurgens (C) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Baltimore Ravens are Explosive-play differential; Early-down efficiency.
The strongest model adjustments toward Cincinnati Bengals are Game-script tendencies; OL vs DL matchup.
The current model leans toward BAL at 60.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Cincinnati Bengals 3-2
- 🏈 Record: Baltimore Ravens 4-2
- 📈 Market (opening): Baltimore Ravens favored by 3.5 points; a total of 51.5 points
- 🌤️ Weather: 62.2°F, 4.5 mph wind
- 🔮 Projected score: CIN 24, BAL 27
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
CINA Game-script tendencies +0.70 Strong
47% neutral pass / 58 plays | 61% / 60
BALH Explosive-play differential +0.67 Moderate
7% / 6% allowed | 5% / 8% allowed
CINA OL vs DL matchup +0.56 Moderate
BAL OL sack 7.7% / DEF sack 7.1% | CIN 4.5% / 9.2%
BALH Early-down efficiency +0.48 Moderate
51% / 40% allowed | 45% / 45% allowed
BALH Run-game matchup +0.32 Weak
BAL 4.9 rush Y/A / 3.8 allowed | CIN 3.6 / 5.0 | PBP 78% stuff avoided | 81% stuff avoided
CINA Recent form +0.30 Moderate
BAL L1 · CIN W1
BALH Starting QB efficiency +0.18 Weak
Lamar Jackson (2026) 70.8% CMP / 10.1 Y/A / 6.3% TD / 1.0% INT / 119.6 RATE · Joe Burrow (2026) 71.4% CMP / 7.2 Y/A / 5.8% TD / 1.6% INT / 104.4 RATE
BALH Record quality +0.13 Weak
BAL 4-2 · CIN 3-2
CINA Pass defense +0.13 Weak
BAL 6.0 net Y/A / 65.0% CMP / 87.0 RATE | CIN 6.0 / 62.5% / 87.0
CINA Special teams efficiency +0.05 Weak
BAL FG 76.9% / NET PUNT 44.5 | CIN 100.0% / 39.8
BALH Third-down efficiency +0.04 Weak
BAL OFF 38.2% / DEF 39.5% | CIN 50.0% / 46.0% | PBP 56%/56%/21% | 65%/63%/32%
BALH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.04 Weak
71% / 58% allowed | 53% / 41% allowed
CINA Schedule strength +0.01 Weak
BAL 36% opp wins · CIN 37%
BALH Raw scoring differential +0.01 Weak
BAL 26.0 PPG · CIN 25.6 PPG | BAL 22.0 PA/G · CIN 21.8 PA/G
CINA Turnover differential +0.01 Weak
BAL 0.7 GIVE / 1.0 TAKE | CIN 1.2 / 1.6
Betting Lines DraftKings
🔍 Key Suspects
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
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