Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Miami Dolphins face New York Jets in Week 7 at MetLife Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Miami Dolphins enter with a 0-5 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 14.0 points scored and 26.4 allowed. Their current streak is 5 losses.
New York Jets enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 18.7 points scored and 20.3 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Miami Dolphins’s 14.0 points per game against a New York Jets defense allowing 20.3. In the other direction, New York Jets average 18.7 against Miami Dolphins’s 26.4 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
The opening market has New York Jets favored by 2.5 points and a total of 41.5 points. These are market expectations, separate from the model’s projected lean.
Miami Dolphins have injury designations to monitor: JuJu Brents (CB) — Questionable; Caleb Douglas (WR) — Questionable; Jonah Savaiinaea (G) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
New York Jets have injury designations to monitor: Breece Hall (RB) — Questionable; Kiko Mauigoa (LB) — Questionable; Adonai Mitchell (WR) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward New York Jets are Starting QB efficiency; Early-down efficiency.
The strongest model adjustments toward Miami Dolphins are Schedule strength; Run-game matchup.
The current model leans toward NYJ at 72.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Miami Dolphins 0-5
- 🏈 Record: New York Jets 2-4
- 📈 Market (opening): New York Jets favored by 2.5 points; a total of 41.5 points
- 🌤️ Weather: 63.1°F, 6.7 mph wind
- 🔮 Projected score: MIA 15, NYJ 24
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
NYJH Starting QB efficiency +1.4 Strong
Geno Smith (2026) 68.9% CMP / 7.5 Y/A / 4.0% TD / 0.6% INT / 101.8 RATE · Malik Willis (2026) 56.2% CMP / 6.5 Y/A / 1.5% TD / 3.1% INT / 68.4 RATE
NYJH Early-down efficiency +1.0 Strong
48% / 44% allowed | 33% / 46% allowed
NYJH Pass defense +0.84 Strong
NYJ 5.3 net Y/A / 61.5% CMP / 93.1 RATE | MIA 7.4 / 76.6% / 115.0
NYJH Record quality +0.67 Strong
NYJ 2-4 · MIA 0-5
NYJH Game-script tendencies +0.65 Strong
54% neutral pass / 55 plays | 45% / 51
NYJH Recent form +0.60 Strong
NYJ L1 · MIA L5
NYJH OL vs DL matchup +0.52 Moderate
NYJ OL sack 9.7% / DEF sack 8.1% | MIA 9.7% / 2.7%
MIAA Schedule strength +0.50 Very Strong
NYJ 57% opp wins · MIA 82%
MIAA Run-game matchup +0.42 Moderate
NYJ 3.6 rush Y/A / 4.2 allowed | MIA 4.9 / 3.7 | PBP 77% stuff avoided | 80% stuff avoided
MIAA Explosive-play differential +0.24 Weak
5% / 5% allowed | 6% / 5% allowed
NYJH Raw scoring differential +0.21 Weak
NYJ 18.7 PPG · MIA 14.0 PPG | NYJ 20.3 PA/G · MIA 26.4 PA/G
NYJH Turnover differential +0.20 Moderate
NYJ 0.7 GIVE / 1.3 TAKE | MIA 1.6 / 0.8
NYJH Third-down efficiency +0.10 Weak
NYJ OFF 35.1% / DEF 37.7% | MIA 41.3% / 51.7% | PBP 60%/41%/25% | 70%/70%/23%
NYJH Special teams efficiency +0.04 Weak
NYJ FG 92.3% / NET PUNT 42.3 | MIA 77.8% / 39.6
MIAA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.02 Weak
31% / 50% allowed | 46% / 64% allowed
Betting Lines DraftKings
🔍 Key Suspects
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
📄 More NFL Games — Sunday, October 25, 2026
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