Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Denver Broncos face Arizona Cardinals in Week 7 at State Farm Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Denver Broncos enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 19.0 points scored and 20.8 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
Arizona Cardinals enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 21.0 points scored and 29.7 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Denver Broncos’s 19.0 points per game against a Arizona Cardinals defense allowing 29.7. In the other direction, Arizona Cardinals average 21.0 against Denver Broncos’s 20.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
The opening market has Denver Broncos favored by 7.5 points and a total of 43.5 points. These are market expectations, separate from the model’s projected lean.
Denver Broncos have injury designations to monitor: Tyler Badie (RB) — Questionable; Talanoa Hufanga (S) — Doubtful; Pat Surtain II (CB) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Arizona Cardinals have injury designations to monitor: Andrew Wingard (S) — Questionable; Wydett Williams Jr. (S) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Arizona Cardinals are Home field / environment; Early-down efficiency.
The strongest model adjustments toward Denver Broncos are Pass defense; Record quality.
The current model leans toward DEN at 67.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Denver Broncos 4-2
- 🏈 Record: Arizona Cardinals 2-4
- 📈 Market (opening): Denver Broncos favored by 7.5 points; a total of 43.5 points
- 🌤️ Weather: 78.8°F, 2.7 mph wind
- 🔮 Projected score: DEN 24, ARI 19
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
DENA Pass defense +1.0 Strong
ARI 7.4 net Y/A / 65.7% CMP / 116.5 RATE | DEN 5.3 / 56.5% / 73.1
ARIH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
ARI home field | ARI 7 days / DEN 10 days
ARIH Early-down efficiency +0.73 Moderate
47% / 45% allowed | 36% / 42% allowed
DENA Record quality +0.67 Strong
ARI 2-4 · DEN 4-2
DENA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.51 Strong
48% / 76% allowed | 61% / 53% allowed
ARIH Third-down efficiency +0.30 Moderate
ARI OFF 39.3% / DEF 41.8% | DEN 31.6% / 44.4% | PBP 69%/42%/23% | 59%/25%/21%
DENA Raw scoring differential +0.23 Moderate
ARI 21.0 PPG · DEN 19.0 PPG | ARI 29.7 PA/G · DEN 20.8 PA/G
DENA Explosive-play differential +0.20 Weak
3% / 6% allowed | 3% / 6% allowed
DENA Schedule strength +0.16 Moderate
ARI 50% opp wins · DEN 58%
ARIH Run-game matchup +0.16 Weak
ARI 3.7 rush Y/A / 4.4 allowed | DEN 3.4 / 4.7 | PBP 77% stuff avoided | 80% stuff avoided
DENA Recent form +0.15 Weak
ARI W1 · DEN W2
ARIH Starting QB efficiency +0.15 Weak
Jacoby Brissett (2026) 66.7% CMP / 5.7 Y/A / 3.8% TD / 2.6% INT / 83.4 RATE · Bo Nix (2026) 60.3% CMP / 5.6 Y/A / 3.2% TD / 1.6% INT / 79.4 RATE
DENA OL vs DL matchup +0.10 Weak
ARI OL sack 4.9% / DEF sack 7.5% | DEN 4.1% / 7.7%
ARIH Game-script tendencies +0.10 Weak
56% neutral pass / 66 plays | 57% / 55
DENA Turnover differential +0.08 Weak
ARI 1.0 GIVE / 1.3 TAKE | DEN 1.0 / 1.7
DENA Special teams efficiency +0.02 Weak
ARI FG 87.5% / NET PUNT 40.5 | DEN 75.0% / 45.9
Betting Lines DraftKings
🔍 Key Suspects
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
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All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges — available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.