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Passing TDs
1.5
69 · UNDER
EVIDENCE
Market Support
+11
Cross-Vendor Consensus
+12
Confirmed Role
+7
Fantasy Market Conviction
+7
Opponent Position Matchup
+3
Game Script
+4
Prop Line vs Projection
+4
Hit Rate
+18
Recent Form
+12
Season Average vs. Line
+10
Consistency
+5
Recent Pass Attempt Volume
+8
Passing Yards per Attempt
+6
Offensive Sack Avoidance
+4
Completion Percentage over Expectation
+5
Red-zone Pass Attempts per Game
+4
Opponent Pass Yards per Attempt Allowed
+5
Opponent Explosive Pass Rate Allowed
+7
Score = 69
CONFIDENCE
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
See Every Key Suspect
Full Suspects list with evidence breakdowns and player prop edges for every NFL game — available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.