NHL Final Intelligence
Buffalo Sabres vs Toronto Maple Leafs β Recap
October 15, 2026 Β· Scotiabank Arena Β· View Preview
Game Recap
The Buffalo Sabres overcame a two-goal third-period deficit to defeat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-4 in overtime, with Owen Power scoring the decisive goal.
Toronto took an early lead when Auston Matthews scored at 2:24 of the first period, assisted by Jack Roslovic. Buffalo's Jack Quinn tied the game at 3:35, but Kirill Marchenko put the Maple Leafs back in front at 13:10, with John Tavares and Darren Raddysh assisting, to end the first period 2-1.
Quinn again tied the game for Buffalo at 2:41 in the second period. However, Marchenko completed a natural hat trick for Toronto, scoring at 11:13 and 16:51 to extend Toronto's lead to 4-2 by the end of the second. Tavares assisted Marchenko's second goal, and Colton Sissons assisted the third.
Buffalo mounted its comeback in the third period, with Dennis Gilbert cutting the lead to 4-3 at 10:05, assisted by Quinn and Zach Benson. Mattias Samuelsson then tied the game at 4-4 at 12:16, assisted by Tage Thompson. Power secured the victory for Buffalo at 3:14 of overtime, with Quinn and Noah Ostlund assisting. Quinn finished with two goals and two assists, while Marchenko led Toronto with three goals. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen made 26 saves for Buffalo, earning the win, while Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 29 shots for Toronto. Both teams now hold 3-3-1 records. SportsFBI's pregame model had leaned towards a Buffalo victory at 52%.
How the Prediction Fared
Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Toronto Maple Leafs (-115, 53% implied) over the Buffalo Sabres. The underdog won.
SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Buffalo Sabres (52% confidence). It gave a 32% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 1 goal.
Standouts
Full box score, every player's line and the scoring plays are available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.
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