NHL Final Intelligence
Tampa Bay Lightning 8, Buffalo Sabres 3 — Recap
· KeyBank Center · Recap published · View Preview
Game Recap
The Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the Buffalo Sabres 8-3 on Saturday, validating SportsFBI's pregame lean at 58% as the Lightning improved their record to 11-4-2 while the Sabres fell to 8-6-3. Despite Buffalo outshooting Tampa Bay 31-22, the Lightning offensive attack clicked heavily led by John Carlson with one goal and four assists, Nikita Kucherov with a hat trick and one assist, Jake Guentzel with four assists, and Brandon Hagel with two goals and one assist. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 24 of 27 shots for Tampa Bay, while Buffalo used two goaltenders as Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen made nine saves on 14 shots and Colten Ellis turned aside five of eight.
Tampa Bay set the tone late in the first period when Scott Sabourin scored at 18:49 off assists from Conor Geekie and Jake Guentzel. John Carlson then extended the lead to 2-0 at 19:38 with helpers from Jake Guentzel and Charle-Edouard D'Astous. The Lightning pushed their advantage further in the second period as Brandon Hagel scored at 4:33 from Anthony Cirelli and John Carlson, followed by Yanni Gourde's goal at 13:02 assisted by Jake Guentzel and Sam O'Reilly to make it 4-0. Buffalo responded late in the middle frame to cut into the deficit when Josh Doan scored at 15:54 off Ryan McLeod and Josh Norris, and Jason Zucker added another at 19:32 with assists from Noah Ostlund and Jack Quinn, bringing the score to 4-2.
The Sabres continued their push early in the third period as Tage Thompson scored just 33 seconds in, assisted by Peyton Krebs and Mattias Samuelsson, pulling Buffalo within one at 4-3. However, Tampa Bay answered decisively with four unanswered goals. Nikita Kucherov ignited the third-period outburst at 1:25 from Brandon Hagel and John Carlson, scored again at 4:11 off John Carlson and Anthony Cirelli, and completed his hat trick at 14:13 with assists from John Carlson and Jake Guentzel to make it 7-3. Brandon Hagel capped the scoring at 15:06 with his second goal of the night, assisted by Nikita Kucherov and Anthony Cirelli, sealing the 8-3 final score.
How the Prediction Fared
Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Tampa Bay Lightning (-130, 57% implied) over the Buffalo Sabres.
SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Tampa Bay Lightning (58% confidence). It gave a 33% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 5 goals.
💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line
Standouts
Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.
📊 Game Flow
- P1 18:49 Scott Sabourin (Conor Geekie, Jake Guentzel) TBL · snap shot · TBL 1, BUF 0
- P1 19:38 John Carlson (Jake Guentzel, Charle-Edouard D'Astous) TBL · Power play · snap shot · TBL 2, BUF 0
- P2 4:33 Brandon Hagel (Anthony Cirelli, John Carlson) TBL · snap shot · TBL 3, BUF 0
- P2 13:02 Yanni Gourde (Jake Guentzel, Sam O'Reilly) TBL · snap shot · TBL 4, BUF 0
- P2 15:54 Josh Doan (Ryan McLeod, Josh Norris) BUF · Power play · tip-in shot · TBL 4, BUF 1
- P2 19:32 Jason Zucker (Noah Ostlund, Jack Quinn) BUF · snap shot · TBL 4, BUF 2
- P3 0:33 Tage Thompson (Peyton Krebs, Mattias Samuelsson) BUF · slap shot · TBL 4, BUF 3
- P3 1:25 Nikita Kucherov (Brandon Hagel, John Carlson) TBL · backhand shot · TBL 5, BUF 3
- P3 4:11 Nikita Kucherov (John Carlson, Anthony Cirelli) TBL · slap shot · TBL 6, BUF 3
- P3 14:13 Nikita Kucherov (John Carlson, Jake Guentzel) TBL · Power play · slap shot · TBL 7, BUF 3
- P3 15:06 Brandon Hagel (Nikita Kucherov, Anthony Cirelli) TBL · snap shot · TBL 8, BUF 3
Biggest Period
The Tampa Bay Lightning scored 4 goals in P3 — the biggest single period of the game.
📋 Team Stats
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 9 | 4 | 9 | 22 |
| BUF | 9 | 7 | 11 | 27 |
🎯 Shot Map
- 8Goals28% of attempts
- 14Saved48% of attempts
- 7Missed the net24% of attempts
- 3Goals7% of attempts
- 24Saved53% of attempts
- 18Missed the net40% of attempts
● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.
🏒 Box Score
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson | D | 1 | 4 | 5 | +4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 21:32 |
| Nikita Kucherov | R | 3 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 |
| Jake Guentzel | C | 0 | 4 | 4 | +2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:10 |
| Brandon Hagel | L | 2 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16:02 |
| Anthony Cirelli | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15:11 |
| Yanni Gourde | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14:33 |
| Scott Sabourin | R | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 07:05 |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18:07 |
| Sam O'Reilly | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12:35 |
| Conor Geekie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 09:52 |
| Ryan McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21:31 |
| J.J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 20:06 |
| Victor Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 18:55 |
| Zemgus Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 17:00 |
| Ilya Mikheyev | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:14 |
| Pontus Holmberg | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:35 |
| Erik Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:00 |
| Jeffrey Viel | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 07:35 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | — | 24 | 27 | 88.9 | 3 | 56:31 |
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:53 |
| Jason Zucker | L | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13:28 |
| Josh Doan | R | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 |
| Mattias Samuelsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20:11 |
| Noah Ostlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17:40 |
| Jack Quinn | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16:44 |
| Peyton Krebs | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16:21 |
| Josh Norris | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14:44 |
| Ryan McLeod | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:18 |
| Rasmus Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 24:31 |
| Owen Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:45 |
| Olen Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:26 |
| Zach Benson | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:48 |
| Conor Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11:55 |
| Tyson Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11:03 |
| Zach Metsa | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:25 |
| Beck Malenstyn | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 09:03 |
| Sam Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 06:09 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | — | 9 | 14 | 64.3 | 5 | 41:25 |
| Colten Ellis | — | 5 | 8 | 62.5 | 3 | 15:03 |
⚔️ Season Series & What's Next
Sharper Picks Start Here
Live odds, Key Suspects, player props, DFS rankings, and real-time game tracking — all in one workspace built for serious bettors and DFS players.