NHL Final Intelligence

VGK 11-5-2
4 – 1
FINAL
BUF 8-5-3

Vegas Golden Knights 4, Buffalo Sabres 1 — Recap

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📰Game Recap

The Vegas Golden Knights defeated the Buffalo Sabres 4-1, backed by a 27-save performance from Adin Hill against 29 shots. SportsFBI's model gave Vegas a pre-150% lean, which proved correct as the Golden Knights improved their record to 11-5-2 while dropping Buffalo to 8-5-3.

After a scoreless opening period where Buffalo outshot Vegas, the Golden Knights broke the deadlock in the second. Mitch Marner opened the scoring at 12:17, followed quickly by Jack Eichel scoring at 13:43 with an assist from Ivan Barbashev to push the lead to 2-0.

Buffalo responded early in the third period when Beck Malenstyn scored at 4:26 off assists from Tyson Kozak and Mattias Samuelsson to make it 2-1. However, Tomas Hertl restored the multi-goal advantage at 5:43 with an assist from Marner, and Hertl added his second goal of the night at 10:00, assisted by Barbashev and Shea Theodore, to secure the 4-1 final.

#GoldenKnights #Sabres #NHL #Hockey

How the Prediction Fared

✓ Favorite Won

Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Vegas Golden Knights (-122, 55% implied) over the Buffalo Sabres.

✓ Model Hit

SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Vegas Golden Knights (55% confidence). It gave a 32% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 3 goals.

💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line

Puck line · VGK -1.5 VGK covered Won by 3
Total · 6.5 Under 5 combined
Moneyline VGK -122 · BUF +102 VGK favored
Line movementOpening line → close
Puck line (BUF) +1.5+1.5 No move
Total 6.56.5 No move
Moneyline (BUF) -102+102 +204

Standouts

Top Scorer · VGK
Tomas Hertl
2 G, 0 A, 2 PTS, 3 SOG · 13:11 TOI
Goals · VGK
Mitch Marner
1 G, 1 A, 2 PTS, 3 SOG · 18:35 TOI

Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.

📊 Game Flow

VGK 3 largest lead P3 10:00 (VGK 4, BUF 1) · 2-0 run, P2 12:17–P2 13:43
BUF 0 largest lead Never led
Swings 0 lead changes Tied 0 times
Scoring summary
  • P2 12:17 Mitch Marner VGK · Shorthanded · wrist shot · VGK 1, BUF 0
  • P2 13:43 Jack Eichel (Ivan Barbashev) VGK · wrist shot · VGK 2, BUF 0
  • P3 4:26 Beck Malenstyn (Tyson Kozak, Mattias Samuelsson) BUF · wrist shot · VGK 2, BUF 1
  • P3 5:43 Tomas Hertl (Mitch Marner) VGK · wrist shot · VGK 3, BUF 1
  • P3 10:00 Tomas Hertl (Ivan Barbashev, Shea Theodore) VGK · wrist shot · VGK 4, BUF 1

Linescore

123 T
VGK 022 4
BUF 001 1

Shots on goal: VGK 25, BUF 28

📋 Team Stats

VGKBUF
26Shots on goal29
63Shot attempts56
29Faceoff wins23
20Hits10
23Blocked shots8
0Power-play goals0
5Takeaways2
16Giveaways8
6Penalty minutes6
96.4%Save %84.0%
Shots on goal by period
TeamP1P2P3Total
VGK611825
BUF145928

🎯 Shot Map

Vegas Golden Knights4 G · 35 attempts
Shea Theodore: missed the netJeremy Lauzon: saved (wrist)Jack Eichel: saved (wrist)Tomas Hertl: saved (wrist)Braeden Bowman: missed the netBrett Howden: saved (wrist)Mark Stone: missed the netVictor Olofsson: saved (slap)William Karlsson: saved (slap)Jack Eichel: saved (slap)Mark Stone: saved (snap)Mitch Marner: missed the netWilliam Karlsson: saved (wrist)William Karlsson: saved (wrist)Nic Dowd: missed the netJack Eichel: missed the netBrayden McNabb: saved (wrist)William Karlsson: saved (wrist)Brett Howden: missed the netTrevor Connelly: saved (snap)Jeremy Lauzon: missed the netBrayden McNabb: missed the netMitch Marner: goal (wrist)Jack Eichel: goal (wrist)Brayden McNabb: saved (slap)Mark Stone: saved (backhand)Jack Eichel: saved (tip-in)Mitch Marner: saved (wrist)Mitch Marner: saved (wrist)Tomas Hertl: goal (wrist)Tomas Hertl: goal (wrist)Mark Stone: missed the netJack Eichel: saved (wrist)William Karlsson: saved (backhand)Victor Olofsson: saved (backhand)
  • 4Goals11% of attempts
  • 21Saved60% of attempts
  • 10Missed the net29% of attempts
Buffalo Sabres1 G · 48 attempts
Tage Thompson: missed the netZach Benson: saved (tip-in)Zach Benson: missed the netJosh Doan: missed the netJiri Kulich: missed the netJiri Kulich: saved (snap)Mattias Samuelsson: saved (slap)Josh Norris: saved (wrist)Conor Timmins: missed the netConor Timmins: missed the netPeyton Krebs: missed the netJiri Kulich: missed the netPeyton Krebs: saved (snap)Olen Zellweger: saved (backhand)Noah Ostlund: saved (backhand)Owen Power: saved (wrist)Peyton Krebs: saved (snap)Zach Benson: saved (snap)Tage Thompson: saved (snap)Mattias Samuelsson: saved (snap)Josh Norris: missed the netTage Thompson: saved (slap)Zach Benson: saved (wrist)Jack Quinn: saved (snap)Noah Ostlund: saved (slap)Rasmus Dahlin: missed the netJosh Norris: missed the netJosh Norris: saved (slap)Jiri Kulich: missed the netMattias Samuelsson: saved (snap)Josh Doan: missed the netJack Quinn: saved (wrist)Rasmus Dahlin: saved (snap)Tage Thompson: missed the netNoah Ostlund: saved (snap)Conor Timmins: missed the netZach Metsa: saved (snap)Olen Zellweger: saved (wrist)Beck Malenstyn: goal (wrist)Sam Carrick: missed the netRasmus Dahlin: saved (slap)Josh Doan: saved (slap)Mattias Samuelsson: saved (snap)Noah Ostlund: missed the netRasmus Dahlin: missed the netJosh Doan: saved (tip-in)Jack Quinn: missed the netNoah Ostlund: missed the net
  • 1Goals2% of attempts
  • 27Saved56% of attempts
  • 20Missed the net42% of attempts

● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.

🏒 Box Score

VGK skatersG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerPosGAP+/-SOGHITBLKTOI
Tomas Hertl C 202+234013:11
Mitch Marner R 112+230018:35
Ivan Barbashev L 022+302113:38
Jack Eichel C 101050017:52
Shea Theodore D 011+300223:11
Brayden McNabb D 000+322522:08
Jeremy Lauzon D 000+113220:22
Rasmus Andersson D 000000119:37
Mark Stone R 000020217:20
Noah Hanifin D 000002216:41
William Karlsson C 000+150216:27
Trevor Connelly L 000-110215:15
Nic Dowd C 000002114:10
Brett Howden C 000012113:45
Victor Olofsson L 000+120012:54
Braeden Bowman R 000001012:25
Dylan Coghlan D 000-101211:03
Marc Gatcomb C 000001009:51
VGK goaliesG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerDecSVSASV%GATOI
Adin Hill — 272896.4158:53
BUF skatersG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerPosGAP+/-SOGHITBLKTOI
Beck Malenstyn L 101+110012:06
Mattias Samuelsson D 011+140222:58
Tyson Kozak C 011+102010:26
Rasmus Dahlin D 000-320123:14
Zach Benson L 000-230122:12
Owen Power D 000-311122:04
Tage Thompson C 000-220019:04
Noah Ostlund C 000-230118:23
Peyton Krebs C 000-121116:50
Jack Quinn R 000-220016:43
Conor Timmins D 000+100116:39
Josh Doan R 000020015:52
Olen Zellweger D 000-121015:35
Jason Zucker L 000-201013:52
Josh Norris C 000-122012:57
Zach Metsa D 000010011:38
Jiri Kulich C 000-112010:29
Sam Carrick C 000+100009:23
BUF goaliesG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerDecSVSASV%GATOI
Colten Ellis — 212584.0458:53

🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines

PlayerPropLineActualResult
Mitch Marner VGK Points0.52 Over
Assists0.51 Over
Shots on goal2.53 Over
Tomas Hertl VGK Points0.52 Over
Assists0.50 Under
Goals0.52 Over
Shots on goal2.53 Over
Ivan Barbashev VGK Points0.52 Over
Assists0.52 Over
Shots on goal1.50 Under
Shea Theodore VGK Points0.51 Over
Assists0.51 Over
Shots on goal1.50 Under
Jack Eichel VGK Points0.51 Over
Assists0.50 Under
Goals0.51 Over
Shots on goal2.55 Over
Mattias Samuelsson BUF Points0.51 Over
Assists0.51 Over
Shots on goal1.54 Over

The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.

⚔️ Season Series & What's Next

2026-27 season series VGK 1 – 0 BUF
Last 3 meetings · since 2025-26 VGK 1 – 2 BUF
Previous meetingsOpen the recap
After this game
Vegas Golden Knights 12-5-2 W3 L10 5-3-2 Next game: vs UTA · Wed, Nov 11
Buffalo Sabres 8-6-3 L1 L10 5-3-2 Next game: vs TBL · Wed, Nov 11

🔍 Key Suspects Results

8 of 18 graded picks hit. Pushes and voided picks are not counted.

VGK — Away
William Karlsson William Karlsson C Shots on Goal · BetMGM 1.5 UNDER MISS Actual 5
Shea Theodore Shea Theodore D Assists · BetMGM 0.5 UNDER MISS Actual 1
Mitch Marner Mitch Marner RW Assists · BetMGM 0.5 OVER HIT Actual 1
Jack Eichel Jack Eichel C Shots on Goal · BetMGM 2.5 UNDER MISS Actual 5
Tomas Hertl Tomas Hertl C Shots on Goal · DraftKings 1.5 OVER HIT Actual 3
Trevor Connelly Trevor Connelly LW Anytime Goal · FanDuel 1+ MILESTONE MISS Actual 0
Victor Olofsson Victor Olofsson LW Shots on Goal · DraftKings 3+ MILESTONE MISS Actual 2
BUF — Home
Jason Zucker Jason Zucker LW Points · BetMGM 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
Josh Doan Josh Doan RW Points · BetMGM 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
Rasmus Dahlin Rasmus Dahlin D Shots on Goal · FanDuel 2.5 OVER MISS Actual 2
Josh Norris Josh Norris C Points · BetMGM 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
Tage Thompson Tage Thompson C Shots on Goal · DraftKings 6+ MILESTONE MISS Actual 2
Noah Ostlund Noah Ostlund C Assists · BetMGM 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
Mattias Samuelsson Mattias Samuelsson D Points · DraftKings 0.5 OVER HIT Actual 1
Peyton Krebs Peyton Krebs C Points · BetMGM 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
Jack Quinn Jack Quinn RW Shots on Goal · FanDuel 2.5 OVER MISS Actual 2
Owen Power Owen Power D Points · DraftKings 2+ MILESTONE MISS Actual 0
Zach Benson Zach Benson LW Assists · DraftKings 0.5 OVER MISS Actual 0

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