NHL Final Intelligence
Winnipeg Jets 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 6 — Recap
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Game Recap
The Tampa Bay Lightning secured a 6-4 victory over the Winnipeg Jets, fending off a third-period comeback attempt after a dominant second period performance. The Lightning, favored by the SportsFBI model at 79% likelihood, outshot the Jets 31-21 overall. The opening period saw both teams exchange goals, with Brayden Point putting Tampa Bay on the board at 2:20, assisted by Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel. Neal Pionk evened the score for Winnipeg at 17:45, with assists from Cole Perfetti and Mark Scheifele.
Tampa Bay seized control in the second period, scoring four unanswered goals to build a significant lead. Conor Geekie broke the tie at 9:43, assisted by Dominic James and Jeffrey Viel, followed by Anthony Cirelli at 15:56, assisted by Pontus Holmberg and Gage Goncalves. John Carlson extended the lead at 18:07, with assists from Pontus Holmberg and Brandon Hagel, and Brandon Hagel added another just 56 seconds later at 19:03, assisted by Anthony Cirelli and Pontus Holmberg. Holmberg was instrumental in this surge, contributing three assists in the period.
The Jets mounted a strong rally in the third period, narrowing the deficit with three goals. Dylan Samberg scored at 7:00, assisted by Cole Perfetti and Mark Scheifele, and Neal Pionk added his second goal of the game at 8:50, with assists from Dawson Mercer and Kyle Connor. Kyle Connor brought Winnipeg within one goal at 17:12, assisted by Mark Scheifele and Dylan Samberg. Mark Scheifele assisted on all three of Winnipeg's third-period goals, capping a three-assist night. However, Holmberg secured Tampa Bay's win with a goal at 18:29, assisted by Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel. Holmberg finished the night with four points (1 G, 3 A), while Cirelli (1 G, 2 A) and Hagel (1 G, 2 A) each had three points.
Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 17 of 21 shots to earn the win for the Lightning. For the Jets, Stuart Skinner made 16 saves on 21 shots, and Nico Daws stopped all nine shots he faced in relief. The victory improved Tampa Bay's record to 7-3-1, while Winnipeg's record moved to 4-5-3.
How the Prediction Fared
Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Tampa Bay Lightning (-225, 69% implied) over the Winnipeg Jets.
SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Tampa Bay Lightning (79% confidence). It gave a 42% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 2 goals.
💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line
Standouts
Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.
📊 Game Flow
- P1 2:20 Brayden Point (Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel) TBL · wrist shot · WPG 0, TBL 1
- P1 17:45 Neal Pionk (Cole Perfetti, Mark Scheifele) WPG · slap shot · WPG 1, TBL 1
- P2 9:43 Conor Geekie (Dominic James, Jeffrey Viel) TBL · backhand shot · WPG 1, TBL 2
- P2 15:56 Anthony Cirelli (Pontus Holmberg, Gage Goncalves) TBL · Power play · deflected shot · WPG 1, TBL 3
- P2 18:07 John Carlson (Pontus Holmberg, Brandon Hagel) TBL · snap shot · WPG 1, TBL 4
- P2 19:03 Brandon Hagel (Anthony Cirelli, Pontus Holmberg) TBL · snap shot · WPG 1, TBL 5
- P3 7:00 Dylan Samberg (Cole Perfetti, Mark Scheifele) WPG · deflected shot · WPG 2, TBL 5
- P3 8:50 Neal Pionk (Dawson Mercer, Kyle Connor) WPG · snap shot · WPG 3, TBL 5
- P3 17:12 Kyle Connor (Mark Scheifele, Dylan Samberg) WPG · Power play · wrist shot · WPG 4, TBL 5
- P3 18:29 Pontus Holmberg (Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel) TBL · Empty net · snap shot · WPG 4, TBL 6
Biggest Period
The Tampa Bay Lightning scored 4 goals in P2 — the biggest single period of the game.
📋 Team Stats
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 6 | 7 | 8 | 21 |
| TBL | 7 | 14 | 10 | 31 |
🎯 Shot Map
- 4Goals11% of attempts
- 17Saved46% of attempts
- 16Missed the net43% of attempts
- 6Goals14% of attempts
- 25Saved57% of attempts
- 13Missed the net30% of attempts
● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.
🏒 Box Score
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Scheifele | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20:31 |
| Neal Pionk | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 22:03 |
| Dylan Samberg | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 22:29 |
| Kyle Connor | L | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 |
| Cole Perfetti | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 17:26 |
| Dawson Mercer | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 |
| Mario Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 20:15 |
| Dylan DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19:53 |
| Gabriel Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19:08 |
| Adam Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17:01 |
| Elias Salomonsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15:50 |
| Haydn Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 15:44 |
| Alex Iafallo | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15:42 |
| Morgan Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 13:40 |
| Viggo Björck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12:28 |
| Isak Rosen | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11:53 |
| Brad Lambert | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 08:58 |
| Cole Koepke | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 08:48 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner | L | 16 | 21 | 76.2 | 5 | 40:00 |
| Nico Daws | — | 9 | 9 | 100.0 | 0 | 18:58 |
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontus Holmberg | R | 1 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17:54 |
| Brandon Hagel | L | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 21:47 |
| Anthony Cirelli | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:00 |
| Brayden Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:12 |
| John Carlson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13:12 |
| Conor Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11:32 |
| Jake Guentzel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 22:51 |
| Nikita Kucherov | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16:13 |
| Gage Goncalves | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:15 |
| Dominic James | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11:48 |
| Jeffrey Viel | L | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11:22 |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 19:18 |
| Erik Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19:04 |
| J.J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18:31 |
| Victor Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:06 |
| Ryan McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:51 |
| Ilya Mikheyev | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:06 |
| Emil Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 08:58 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | W | 17 | 21 | 81.0 | 4 | 60:00 |
🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines
| Player | Prop | Line | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontus Holmberg TBL | Points | 0.5 | 4 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 3 | Over | |
| Mark Scheifele WPG | Points | 0.5 | 3 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 3 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Brandon Hagel TBL | Points | 0.5 | 3 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 5 | Over | |
| Anthony Cirelli TBL | Points | 0.5 | 3 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 1 | Under | |
| Cole Perfetti WPG | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 3 | Over | |
| Kyle Connor WPG | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 3.5 | 4 | Over |
The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.
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