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MLB Matchup Intelligence

ARI vs
STL

Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals

July 23, 2026 ยท 5:15 PM ET ยท Busch Stadium
ARI 86-76  ยท  STL 77-85

๐Ÿ Final: ARI 10, STL 6 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† St. Louis Cardinals
Confidence 54%
Projected Score STL 5 ยท ARI 4
Blowout Probability 3%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

STL Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
STL Key injuries ARI (Corbin Burnes, Gabriel Moreno) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ARI SP quality edge (FIP 3.67 vs 3.90) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ARI STL SP elevated fatigue โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
STL ARI SP fatigued โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ARI Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ARI Defensive edge (dWAR 2.7) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ARI Recent run diff (+3.4 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
STL Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

ARI โ€” Away RHP
Brandon Pfaadt
Brandon Pfaadt
ERA3.77
WHIP1.18
FIP3.76
K/96.2
K/BB4.1
Road ERA: 3.13
vs
STL โ€” Home RHP
Michael McGreevy
Michael McGreevy
ERA3.95
WHIP1.28
FIP4.21
K/96.2
K/BB3.6
Home ERA: 3.98

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

ARI โ€” Away
  1. 1 Corbin Carroll RF
  2. 1 Ketel Marte 2B
  3. 2 Geraldo Perdomo SS
  4. 3 Gabriel Moreno C
  5. 4 Max Kepler LF
  6. 5 Adrian Del Castillo DH
  7. 6 Tim Tawa 3B
  8. 7 Ildemaro Vargas 2B
  9. 8 Tyler Locklear 1B
  10. 9 Ryan Waldschmidt CF
STL โ€” Home
  1. 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
  2. 2 Jordan Walker RF
  3. 3 Alec Burleson DH
  4. 4 Lars Nootbaar LF
  5. 5 Masyn Winn SS
  6. 6 Jose Fermin 3B
  7. 7 Nathan Church CF
  8. 8 Blaze Jordan 1B
  9. 9 Jimmy Crooks C

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

ARI Away STL Home
Team OPS 0.714 0.692
Bullpen FIP 3.95 3.97
Run Diff / 10G +2.7 -0.7
Days Rest 0 0
Streak -2 -4

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
ARI -3.5 (+126)
STL +3.5 (-165)
Total (O/U)
Over 8.5 (-119)
Under 8.5 (-109)
Moneyline
ARI -4200
STL +1040

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 4 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

ARI โ€” Away
Gabriel Moreno Gabriel Moreno C
Singles
0.5
70 ยท OVER
Geraldo Perdomo Geraldo Perdomo SS
Singles
0.5
65 ยท OVER
Corbin Carroll Corbin Carroll RF
RBIs
1.5
64 ยท UNDER
Ketel Marte Ketel Marte 2B
Runs
0.5
57 ยท OVER
STL โ€” Home
JJ Wetherholt JJ Wetherholt 2B
Singles
0.5
58 ยท OVER
Alec Burleson Alec Burleson DH
RBIs
1.5
56 ยท UNDER
Jose Fermin Jose Fermin 3B
Singles
0.5
52 ยท OVER
Michael McGreevy Michael McGreevy SP
Outs
17.5
50 ยท UNDER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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