โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

NYM vs
TOR

New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays

July 1, 2026 ยท 3:07 PM ET ยท Rogers Centre
NYM 74-88  ยท  TOR 79-83

๐Ÿ Final: NYM 3, TOR 9 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Toronto Blue Jays
Confidence 59%
Projected Score TOR 5 ยท NYM 3
Blowout Probability 6%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

TOR Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM Key injuries TOR (Dylan Cease) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TOR Key injuries NYM (Christian Scott) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TOR SP quality edge (FIP 3.50 vs 4.29) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TOR NYM SP elevated fatigue โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TOR Defensive edge (dWAR 4.1) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TOR Recent run diff (+0.8 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TOR NYM SP home dependent โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

NYM โ€” Away RHP
Freddy Peralta
Freddy Peralta
ERA4.42
WHIP1.32
FIP4.14
K/98.3
K/BB5.0
Road ERA: 4.32
vs
TOR โ€” Home RHP
Braydon Fisher
Braydon Fisher
ERA3.21
WHIP1.27
FIP4.27
K/98.9
K/BB3.6

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

NYM โ€” Away
  1. 1 Carson Benge RF
  2. 2 Juan Soto DH
  3. 3 Bo Bichette 3B
  4. 4 Francisco Lindor SS
  5. 5 A.J. Ewing CF
  6. 6 Francisco Alvarez C
  7. 7 Jared Young 1B
  8. 8 Brett Baty 2B
  9. 9 Tyrone Taylor LF
TOR โ€” Home
  1. 1 Nathan Lukes RF
  2. 2 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
  3. 3 Kazuma Okamoto 3B
  4. 4 Daulton Varsho CF
  5. 5 Alejandro Kirk C
  6. 6 Yohendrick Pinango LF
  7. 7 Ernie Clement 2B
  8. 8 Sean Keys DH
  9. 9 Andres Gimenez SS

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

NYM Away TOR Home
Team OPS 0.755 0.682
Bullpen FIP 4.39 4.49
Run Diff / 10G -1.6 -0.8
Days Rest 0 0
Streak -1 1

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
NYM +4.5 (+123)
TOR -4.5 (-161)
Total (O/U)
Over 7.5 (-145)
Under 7.5 (+112)
Moneyline
NYM +1360
TOR -10000

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 4 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

NYM โ€” Away
Carson Benge Carson Benge RF
Singles
0.5
68 ยท OVER
Juan Soto Juan Soto DH
Singles
0.5
59 ยท OVER
Bo Bichette Bo Bichette 3B
Singles
0.5
58 ยท OVER
Francisco Lindor Francisco Lindor SS
Runs
1.5
50 ยท UNDER
TOR โ€” Home
Nathan Lukes Nathan Lukes RF
Singles
0.5
70 ยท OVER
Alejandro Kirk Alejandro Kirk C
Singles
0.5
65 ยท OVER
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
Singles
0.5
60 ยท OVER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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