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MLB Matchup Intelligence

PHI vs
BOS

Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox

May 14, 2026 ยท 6:45 PM ET ยท Fenway Park
PHI 88-74  ยท  BOS 87-75

๐Ÿ Final: PHI 3, BOS 1 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Philadelphia Phillies
Confidence 72%
Projected Score PHI 4 ยท BOS 1
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

BOS Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PHI Key injuries BOS (Mickey Gasper, Roman Anthony) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Key injuries PHI (Luis Arraez) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PHI SP quality edge (FIP 2.56 vs 2.73, PF 1.07) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PHI BOS SP elevated fatigue โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PHI Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Defensive edge (dWAR 12.2) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PHI K edge vs BOS lineup (11.1 K/9) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PHI Recent run diff (+1.2 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PHI SP road mastery (ERA 1.83 R vs 3.69 H) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

PHI โ€” Away LHP
Jesus Luzardo
Jesus Luzardo
ERA2.86
WHIP1.07
FIP2.59
K/911.1
K/BB8.5
Road ERA: 1.83
vs
BOS โ€” Home LHP
Ranger Suarez
Ranger Suarez
ERA3.22
WHIP1.19
FIP3.02
K/98.5
K/BB5.7
Home ERA: 3.72

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

PHI โ€” Away
  1. 1 Trea Turner SS
  2. 2 Kyle Schwarber DH
  3. 3 Bryce Harper 1B
  4. 4 Adolis Garcia RF
  5. 5 Alec Bohm 3B
  6. 6 Brandon Marsh CF
  7. 7 J.T. Realmuto C
  8. 8 Felix Reyes LF
  9. 9 Edmundo Sosa 2B
BOS โ€” Home
  1. 1 Jarren Duran LF
  2. 2 Andruw Monasterio DH
  3. 3 Wilyer Abreu RF
  4. 4 Willson Contreras 1B
  5. 5 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
  6. 6 Trevor Story SS
  7. 7 Carlos Narvaez C
  8. 8 Caleb Durbin 3B
  9. 9 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

PHI Away BOS Home
Team OPS 0.717 0.684
Bullpen FIP 4.07 3.55
Run Diff / 10G +1.5 +0.3
Days Rest 0 0
Streak 1 -3

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
PHI -1.5 (-456)
BOS +1.5 (+310)
Total (O/U)
Over 4.5 (+276)
Under 4.5 (-396)
Moneyline
PHI -1920
BOS +780

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 1 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

PHI โ€” Away
Jesus Luzardo Jesus Luzardo SP
Pitcher Ks
6.5
57 ยท OVER
BOS โ€” Home

No data yet.

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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