โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

PHI vs
NYM

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets

June 28, 2026 ยท 1:40 PM ET ยท Citi Field
PHI 88-74  ยท  NYM 74-88

๐Ÿ Final: PHI 5, NYM 4 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Philadelphia Phillies
Confidence 72%
Projected Score PHI 6 ยท NYM 4
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

NYM Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PHI Key injuries NYM (Christian Scott) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM Key injuries PHI (Luis Arraez) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PHI SP quality edge (FIP 3.10 vs 4.43) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM Defensive edge (dWAR 4.5) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PHI K edge vs NYM lineup (11.1 K/9) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PHI Recent run diff (+3.0 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PHI SP road mastery (ERA 1.83 R vs 3.69 H) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PHI Line move (32pp sharp) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PHI Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

PHI โ€” Away LHP
Jesus Luzardo
Jesus Luzardo
ERA2.86
WHIP1.07
FIP2.59
K/911.1
K/BB8.5
Road ERA: 1.83
vs
NYM โ€” Home LHP
Cionel Perez
Cionel Perez
ERA4.76
WHIP1.46
FIP4.43
K/98.8
K/BB5.0

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

PHI โ€” Away
  1. 1 Trea Turner SS
  2. 2 Kyle Schwarber DH
  3. 3 Bryce Harper 1B
  4. 4 Alec Bohm 3B
  5. 5 Brandon Marsh LF
  6. 6 J.T. Realmuto C
  7. 7 Bryson Stott 2B
  8. 8 Derek Hill RF
  9. 9 Justin Crawford CF
NYM โ€” Home
  1. 1 Carson Benge RF
  2. 2 Juan Soto LF
  3. 3 Bo Bichette SS
  4. 4 Eric Wagaman 1B
  5. 5 Francisco Alvarez DH
  6. 6 Mark Vientos 3B
  7. 7 Tyrone Taylor CF
  8. 8 Brett Baty 2B
  9. 9 Luis Torrens C

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

PHI Away NYM Home
Team OPS 0.728 0.726
Bullpen FIP 4.07 4.39
Run Diff / 10G +1.1 -1.9
Days Rest 0 0
Streak 1 -1

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
PHI -1.5 (+1360)
NYM +1.5 (-10000)
Total (O/U)
Over 9.5 (+544)
Under 9.5 (-1000)
Moneyline
PHI -1780
NYM +750

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 4 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

PHI โ€” Away
Bryce Harper Bryce Harper 1B
Hits
0.5
76 ยท OVER
Alec Bohm Alec Bohm 3B
Hits
0.5
75 ยท OVER
Bryson Stott Bryson Stott 2B
Hits
0.5
71 ยท OVER
Justin Crawford Justin Crawford CF
Hits
0.5
61 ยท OVER
NYM โ€” Home
Carson Benge Carson Benge RF
Hits
0.5
69 ยท OVER
Bo Bichette Bo Bichette SS
Hits
0.5
68 ยท OVER
Juan Soto Juan Soto LF
Hits
0.5
68 ยท OVER
Brett Baty Brett Baty 2B
Hits
1.5
59 ยท UNDER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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