โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

PIT vs
STL

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals

May 21, 2026 ยท 1:15 PM ET ยท Busch Stadium
PIT 82-80  ยท  STL 77-85

๐Ÿ Final: PIT 6, STL 2 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Pittsburgh Pirates
Confidence 72%
Projected Score PIT 6 ยท STL 3
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

STL Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
STL Key injuries PIT (Oneil Cruz) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PIT Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PIT Recent run diff (+0.7 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PIT STL SP road-favored (pitching at home) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
STL Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

PIT โ€” Away RHP
Braxton Ashcraft
Braxton Ashcraft
ERA3.65
WHIP1.09
FIP3.37
K/99.4
K/BB7.5
Road ERA: 3.72
vs
STL โ€” Home RHP
Dustin May
Dustin May
ERA4.70
WHIP1.32
FIP3.40
K/98.9
K/BB5.8
Home ERA: 5.12

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

PIT โ€” Away
  1. 1 Oneil Cruz CF
  2. 2 Brandon Lowe 2B
  3. 3 Bryan Reynolds LF
  4. 4 Spencer Horwitz 1B
  5. 5 Konnor Griffin SS
  6. 6 Marcell Ozuna DH
  7. 7 Jake Mangum RF
  8. 8 Jared Triolo 3B
  9. 9 Henry Davis C
STL โ€” Home
  1. 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
  2. 2 Ivan Herrera DH
  3. 3 Alec Burleson 1B
  4. 4 Jordan Walker RF
  5. 5 Nolan Gorman 3B
  6. 6 Masyn Winn SS
  7. 7 Jose Fermin LF
  8. 8 Pedro Pages C
  9. 9 Victor Scott II CF

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

PIT Away STL Home
Team OPS 0.712 0.671
Bullpen FIP 3.99 3.97
Run Diff / 10G +0.0 -0.7
Days Rest 0 0
Streak 1 -4

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
PIT -3.5 (-170)
STL +3.5 (+130)
Total (O/U)
Over 8.5 (-172)
Under 8.5 (+131)
Moneyline
PIT -4500
STL +1060

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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